The winner of Saturday’s Iowa GOP straw poll won’t be known until sometime after 6 p.m. But you’ll be able to hazard a good guess hours earlier simply by eye-balling the crowd gathered in and around the Hilton Coliseum at Iowa State University.

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POLITICO.COM -
Ames straw poll forecast: Cloudy with chance of Pawlenty -
By JONATHAN MARTIN -
August 11, 2011 -


Ames straw poll forecast: Cloudy with chance of Pawlenty


Some excerpts :

The reason is simple: In a contest traditionally shaped by candidates who pay for tickets and bus in supporters, the outcome is usually telegraphed by the size and make-up of the crowd that shows up.

According to both the campaigns and straw poll veterans, a large gathering would be indicative that more attendees showed up than just those delivered by the campaigns – an organic turnout of true believers which would favor Michele Bachmann.

At the top of polls here, Bachmann would benefit from a broader crowd where the composition of voters is more reflective of the actual caucus-going electorate.

The Minnesota congresswoman would also likely fare better in an expanded universe because her organization is not as sophisticated as that of her top rival here, Tim Pawlenty.

With cars dedicated to ferrying voters back and forth from suburban Des Moines to Ames, a hard count of over 2,000 dedicated supporters and a phalanx of over a dozen longtime operatives whipping votes, Pawlenty has an operation that could succeed if turnout is limited to Republicans who came on the dime of the various campaigns. But the former Minnesota governor, who has been on TV for much of the last month but still lags in polls, also has a ceiling.

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