Salon.com : Run, Michele Bachmann, run ! - Why Michele Bachmann should run for president - The likely GOP contenders engage in a race to the moral, intellectual and political bottom, Bachmann's not really worse than the rest of them

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Joan Walsh : "I used to think she was at the GOP fringe, but the party's in a race to the bottom. She's no worse than Gingrich"

Salon.com
Why Michele Bachmann should run for president
Wednesday, May 18, 2011 18:19 ET
Joan Walsh


Why Michele Bachmann should run for president


Some excerpts :

I know, I know, I already wrote my "Run, Michele, run" piece, but it was tongue-in-cheek, the chortling of a Democrat who couldn't believe President Obama would be lucky enough to have a chance at Michele Bachmann in November 2012. She just seemed so far outside the GOP mainstream, even on the Tea Party fringe, with a gift for saying such profoundly stupid things, I couldn't take her seriously.

I'm beginning to take her kind of seriously. Because as the likely GOP contenders engage in a race to the moral, intellectual and political bottom, Bachmann's not really worse than the rest of them.

Tuesday Bachmann claimed she's riding a grass-roots wave as she ponders a presidential run in the wake of announcements by Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee that they won't make the race. "Well, I think what this has changed is the grass roots, and what they're looking for," Bachmann told Fox News. "Our phones have been ringing off the hook, our Facebook has been lit up, our donations are pouring in. And people are saying, 'Michele, jump in, we want you to run.' And we had announced earlier that we would be looking at a June entry date for a decision one way or another about this race. Possibly, we may move that up."

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OK, Bachmann doesn't know in exactly which state American rebels fired "the shots heard round the world," she believes the founders "worked tirelessly to eradicate slavery" though many owned slaves, and likes to refer to the Obama administration as "gangster government," which is up there with Gingrich's references to Detroit and food stamps as racial dog whistles pretty much everyone can hear. She's a far-right demagogue -- but in a race where even moderate candidates are running to the right, why not offer voters the real thing?

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POLITICO.COM : Richard Holbrooke against a “surge” of troops into Afghanistan in 2009 and arguing for a speedy peace deal with the Taliban. AfPak reminded him of Vietnam - Obama’s Vietnam

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The uselessness of being harsh and tough with Pakistan, the nation that has the key to end the AfPak war and produce the necessary reconciliation.

POLITICO.COM
Richard Holbrooke's last campaign
By BEN SMITH
May 19, 2011


Richard Holbrooke's last campaign


Some excerpts :

Nicholas Kristof’s Sunday column in The New York Times was a classic of a certain genre: A prominent, respected administration figure stuns the White House and rattles the apparatus by going on record to criticize U.S. policy.

That Richard Holbrooke has been dead for nearly six months hardly diminished the impact. Indeed, the public airing of Holbrooke’s posthumous concerns that Afghanistan had become a Vietnam-like quagmire put the administration in a particularly difficult position: It’s hard to spin against the saintly departed, a twist that Holbrooke, his friends say, would have positively relished.

The column, full of Holbrooke’s private remarks to his wife, Kati Marton, to Kristof, and selected tidbits from his private notes, marked a sort of milestone in what is shaping up to be Holbrooke’s last campaign, one with typically high stakes. The goal, Marton and other friends say, is twofold: to advance Holbrooke’s goal of a negotiated solution to the nearly decadelong war and to secure his legacy as a visionary who worked himself to death for a vital cause — and not as the isolated old lion some in the administration have portrayed.

“It’s so characteristic of Holbrooke that he would be no longer among us but still very much in the argument,” said Peter Osnos, his longtime editor, whose imprint, PublicAffairs, will publish a book of essays on Holbrooke later this year.

The posthumous Holbrooke is weighing in on an argument, Kristof wrote, that he’d lost while serving as the administration’s special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan: pushing back against a “surge” of troops into Afghanistan in 2009 and arguing for a speedy peace deal with the Taliban.

Holbrooke, Kristof wrote, “chafed at aspects of the White House approach [to Afghanistan]” and “winced at the over-reliance on military force, for it reminded him of Vietnam.”

Marton is quoted as saying Holbrooke saw the conflict as “Obama’s Vietnam,” a combustible phrase for a Democratic president.

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“I want to spur that and also to raise a voice of concern regarding the temptation to throw up our hands and tell the Pakistanis where to get off,” she said. “I’m very familiar with his thinking, and I’m also familiar with what he was trying to do, … and what he was trying to do was to prepare the ground for reconciliation.”

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Donna Brazile : "A cynical effort to restrict voting by traditionally Democratic-leaning Americans. In more than 30 states, GOP legislators are on the move" - "GOP's 2012 game plan is to keep voters home"

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Election 2012 : "What the GOP is attempting to do is change the rules of the game, leaving only their players on the field".

USA Today
Brazile: GOP's 2012 game plan is to keep voters home
By Donna Brazile
Donna Brazile, former interim chair of the Democratic National Committee, is a syndicated columnist, an author and an adjunct professor at Georgetown University.
May 17, 2011


Brazile: GOP's 2012 game plan is to keep voters home



Some excerpts :

Across America, Republican lawmakers have talked a big game about cutting budgets, but they also are seeking reductions to something much more fundamental: Americans' voting rights. From coast to coast, the GOP is engaged in what appears to be a coordinated, expensive effort to block voters from the polls.

The motivation is political — a cynical effort to restrict voting by traditionally Democratic-leaning Americans. In more than 30 states, GOP legislators are on the move, from a sweeping rewrite of Florida's election laws to new rules for photo identification in Ohio, Wisconsin, North Carolina and more than 20 other states.

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So these voting hurdles won't improve the integrity of our elections, but they will change the face of the electorate.

President Obama was swept into office with overwhelming support from newly registered voters, minority voters and youth voters. I suppose it's not a surprise, then, that heading into the 2012 election, these are the groups who will be most affected by these restrictions.

In my career, I have felt the elation of a hard-fought, successful campaign and the crushing defeat of an equally grueling loss. I've learned that campaigns are about which side makes the more compelling case to the electorate. This is what makes our democracy great. What the GOP is attempting to do is change the rules of the game, leaving only their players on the field.

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POLITICO.COM : "What we don’t know is whether Michele Bachmann’s serious about 2012 or whether she’s engaged in a long, Trump-like ploy to raise her profile and vacuum up money for her House campaign account. (See: Pay Bachmann $50 to run)"

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She can fire up a crowd. She’s good on television. She can raise money – lots of it. And no one is more conservative. This Woman is ideal for the Evangelical Christians, Super Conservatives and Old People.

POLITICO.COM
X factor: 5 questions for the GOP race
By ALEXANDER BURNS
May 17, 2011


X factor: 5 questions for the GOP race


Some excerpts :

How long does Michele Bachmann drag this out?

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There’s a gaping hole on the right wing of the Republican presidential field and no one else openly mulling a bid could jump through it better than Bachmann. CBS News quoted a senior Bachmann aide Monday calling it “very likely” that she’ll run. Yet a flurry of Iowa staff announcements and early-state trips has slowed recently, and Bachmann skipped the first GOP debate in South Carolina.

Bachmann is taking a risk by dragging out her decision. On the up side, she could benefit from a spate of feverish, will-she-or-won’t-she media attention, as the national press resists accepting that the Republican field is locked in place.

But in order to run a credible presidential campaign, the Iowa-born congresswoman would have to make a big splash at the Iowa straw poll in Ames this August. That requires preparation. Will she join the next debate June 13 in New Hampshire and start getting to work?

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The Daily Beast : "The Macho Democrat" by Michael Tomasky - Obama looks unbeatable now—but the GOP sees weak spots. the political advantage gained by the president’s national security “scalp”

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“Democrats have wondered about how you look tough on national security. Turns out the way you look tough is by being good at it.”

The Daily Beast
The Macho Democrat
by Michael Tomasky
May 16, 2011


The Macho Democrat


Some excerpts :

When presidential campaigns hit crunch time, both sides reach for their most visceral arguments. For liberals, it’s the Supreme Court: Yes, Mondale-Dukakis-Gore-Kerry is bland and dissatisfying, but think of the court! For conservatives, it’s the people in the world who want to do America harm, and the longtime Republican conviction, going back at least to the early 1950s “Who Lost China?” debate, that those feeble Democrats won’t keep America safe.

The actual record is more complicated—hawkish Democratic presidents marched us into the Vietnam tragedy, while a Republican one, Ronald Reagan, transformed himself by 1986 into one of the doviest presidents of the 20th century. But the brands are hard-wired into both parties’ DNA, with some justification, and nearly every Republican politician at some point makes the charge.

But now, the killing of Osama bin Laden is changing this equation dramatically. Alleged Muslim Barack Obama did in two and a half years what Bush couldn’t do in seven and a half. It wasn’t just the result. The nature of the operation is still breathtaking, weeks later, and the risk Obama took, which he conveyed with masterful cool in his 60 Minutes interview, is mind-blowing (imagine if bin Laden hadn’t been there!). You can call the president who oversaw the operation many things, but weak isn’t one of them.

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Absurd. But Democrats need to avoid becoming cocky. Republicans will not give up their narrative of liberal weakness so easily. Over the coming weeks, the GOP is likely to strike back on three fronts.

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BOSTON.COM : "Romney fundraising day yields $10.25m" - Mitt Romney is the Republican Front Runner, at least in fundraising - Friend of Big Banks and Defense Spending - Enemy of Bank Regulations and "Entitlements" for Minorities and the Poor

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Here is a Super Conservative with the greatest capacity to raise money for his Presidential Campaign - He is a Mormon, and a defender of Big Money and the Super Rich, because he is one of them

The Boston Globe
Politics,Campaign 2012
Romney fundraising day yields $10.25m
by Matt Viser, Globe Staff
May 16, 2011


Romney fundraising day yields $10.25m


Some excerpts :

LAS VEGAS – Mitt Romney raised $10.25 million from his National Call Day here today, far exceeding the haul he brought in from a similar fundraising day in Boston four years ago.

With around 720 supporters placing calls around the country throughout the day, he sought to put on full display one of the most important attributes for his emerging campaign: raising money.

Supporters -- gathered in a conference room at the Las Vegas Convention Center that Romney aides happily noted was the size of two football fields -- began gathering to make calls at 5:30 a.m., asking contributors to give the maximum to his campaign.

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The National Call Day was similar to a daylong fundraising event Romney held in Boston during his last campaign, which his staff said drew about 400 people and brought in $6.5 million in actual contributions and signed pledges.

That event, held at the Boston Convention and Exhibition Center, was meant to highlight his home state, with the Fenway Park anthem “Dirty Water” blaring from the loudspeakers after he spoke.

This time, the event was held 2,700 miles away, and designed to show how import Nevada will be to Romney’s campaign this time. The state is set to be third in line, behind Iowa and New Hampshire, and Romney has placed nearly as much early emphasis on Nevada as he has on New Hampshire.

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Romney also criticized the financial reform legislation passed by Congress last year and spearheaded by Representative Barney Frank, of Newton. He called it a “massive burden” and said “it make it harder” for businesses to prepare for future investments.

“Washington passed this big Dodd-Frank bill…that has literally thousands of pages of regulations,” Romney said. “Because the banking industry is so frightened, they’ve held back” on making investment.

He also said he would cut the deficit, largely by focusing on discretionary spending cuts and reforms to entitlement programs such as Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security. Romney has yet to outline in-depth what types of reforms that would entail.

But he also pledged not to cut the defense budget, saying any spending viewed as wasteful would be redirected to military programs.

He closed by thanking the 900,000 followers who had become his friend through Facebook, and then requested that they consider making a donation.

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HuffPost : "The void created by Huckabee's decision could prompt 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin or Minnesota Representative Michele Bachmann to get in the race. Palin has yet to say if she will run, while Bachmann is inching toward a bid"

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Huckabee abandons the Presidential Race, this is a great favor to the most Conservative Republican Candidates, those that enjoy the support of Evangelical Christians and that preach a Hawkish Foreign Policy of "Great Patriotism" or Fear of "Terrorism"

Mike Huckabe says that he is a very powerful candidate inside the Republican Order, then if he does not run that means that Huck thinks that Obama is even more powerful and unbeatable.




Huffington Post
Mike Huckabee's Exit Further Widens GOP Presidential Field
By BRADLEY KLAPPER
May 15, 2011


Mike Huckabee's Exit Further Widens GOP Presidential Field


Some excerpts :

The lack of a clear GOP front-runner reflects Obama's perceived strength as a candidate less than a year-and-a-half before the election. Despite uneven economic growth and continued sluggishness in the employment market, Obama will have the advantage of being an incumbent president with a seemingly unmatchable capacity to generate cash for his campaign. And while events could change dramatically between now and the presidential vote, polls show Obama in a stronger position now than he was before the mission that killed al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden.

Republican candidates were quick to praise Huckabee after his announcement, making obvious plays for his backers.

"His voters are very independent and they're going to go where they believe that America needs to go both in conservative and spiritual values," Gingrich said Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press." "Gov. Huckabee's is going to remain a very important figure in the conservative movement and I suspect that he's going to have a role to play for years to come."

Pawlenty said he'd work hard to gain the support of millions of Americans who have backed Huckabee, while former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum praised the TV host for praying before deciding not to run. Santorum added that he wanted to talk with Huckabee about fighting for traditional values even as some Republicans "seek to form a 'truce' on social issues."

That was a slap at Daniels, who is considering a run and has suggested that Republicans downplay their focus on cultural issues like abortion while the nation's economy is so fragile.

Huckabee praised several potential GOP nominees who, he said, hold points of view similar to his own. A notable omission from the list: Romney.

"There has been a lot of talk about Mitt Romney and me. And we don't socialize together. We're not close, you know, in personal ways," Huckabee said on "Fox News Sunday." "But I want to make it very clear today, if Mitt Romney is the nominee for our party, I will support him because I believe that Mitt Romney would be a better president of the United States than Barack Obama on any day."

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POLITICO.COM "The Arena" Forum : Obama's reelection odds ? - Obama already a shoo-in for 2012 ? - The total effect of ethnic minorities was to add more than 7 million votes to Obama's tally in 2008 - Blacks are returning to the South

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Steve Murphy Democratic consultant :


"It seems that Mike Huckabee believes President Obama will be elected and Gov. Huckabee is more credible on the matter than me"






POLITICO.COM "The Arena" Forum -
Obama's reelection odds ? -
May. 16, 2011


Obama's reelection odds ?


This is a selection of the best opinions ( in different order to what Politico presents ) :

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Steve Murphy Democratic consultant; Managing Partner at Murphy Vogel Askew Reilly :

It seems that Mike Huckabee believes President Obama will be elected and Gov. Huckabee is more credible on the matter than me.

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Seung Min Kim Moderator :

A majority of Americans like President Barack Obama and are open to reelecting him, despite widespread disapproval of his handling of the economy, according to a POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll released today.

Fifty-two percent of Americans approve of Obama’s handling of the presidency, and 72 percent approve of him personally. And while his uptick in approval ratings could be attributed to the killing of Osama bin Laden, 84 percent of respondents said bin Laden’s death makes “no difference” in whether they vote for Obama.

Meanwhile, 57 percent say they disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy.

With those numbers in mind, and recognizing that there is no named GOP challenger against Obama yet, what’s your current assessment of Obama’s reelection chances?

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Dewey Clayton Professor of Political Science, University of Louisville :

It is a long time between now and the election in November 2012 and anything can happen. However, President Obama is a popular president who has created a new coalition of voters of different races, ethnicities and age groups.

In 2004, Obama increased the turnout of African-Americans and Latino voters as they voted in larger numbers than in 2004, and by marked support of the Democratic candidate. Latinos are now the largest minority group in the nation, and their share of the electorate will grow substantially as the children of recent immigrants become eligible to vote. The total effect of ethnic minorities was to add more than 7 million votes to Obama's tally in 2008.

And although minority votes played a substantial role in Obama's victory in 2004, he would not have won that election but for his support from white voters. Obama captured 43 percent of the white vote. Obama ignored the conventional wisdom of political analysts who argued that Democrats should forget about capturing the South because it is beyond the Democrats' reach.

Obama instituted a new "Southern Strategy." Obama saw the South as fertile ground for electoral college votes and he aggressively courted that region. Unlike his Democratic predecessors, Obama spent time and poured considerable financial resources into the region. As a result, he was victorious in Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. Two of those states -- Virginia, and North Carolina -- had only voted Democratic once since 1964 -- North Carolina in 1976 -- Obama, nevertheless, aggressively pursued both.

Moreover, the Democratic National Committee has chosen Charlotte, N.C., as the site of the 2012 Democratic National Convention. This is a clear sign that Obama sees that the South and demographic groups that are important to his candidacy in that region -- younger voters, African-American voters, Hispanics, and educated whites -- as supportive of his candidacy.

Moreover, recent demographic trends show that African-American voters, who left the South for the North during the Great Migration that started in the early 20th century, are now returning to the South in large numbers.

Obama has effectively put together a new coalition of voters for the 21st century. One major pillar of that coalition is white voters with college or post-graduate degrees, many of them professionals with white-collar occupations. Obama won 47 percent of those highly educated whites in 2008. He carried 52 percent of college-educated white women and 42 percent of college-educated white men. This trend bodes well for Obama because over the last 10 years, more college-educated suburban whites have been moving in the Democratic column.

Lastly, Obama is projected to have a huge campaign chest with some estimates as high as $1 billion. Given the considerable advantages of being an incumbent president, his personal popularity, charisma, and formidable campaigning skills, he is currently in a good position to win reelection. Moreover, the Republican Party at this stage in the election cycle, has yet to identify a strong field of candidates to seek the nomination of their party to run against Obama.

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Brendan Daly Ogilvy Washington; former Pelosi communications director :

President Obama has a very good chance of being re-elected. That was true even before the successful raid of Osama bin Laden, but the aftermath of the decision to target bin Laden has demonstrated that the President is a strong, decisive leader who can produce results. Of course, the election is a long way off and things can change dramatically between now and then, particularly if the economy weakens and gas prices continue to rise. But right now, the President’s ability to lead far outstrips any of his potential Republican rivals. None of them is particularly inspiring, which is why many GOP leaders continue to ask for more candidates to get into the race.

The economy will be of far more importance than this poll shows, but under the President’s leadership, the economy is slowly moving in the right direction, with private sector jobs growing every month. In fact, the number of private sector jobs created last month was the largest rise in private sector employment in five years.

There is a long way to go, both for the economy and for the election. But right now, the President’s strong numbers demonstrate he will be a formidable candidate for re-election. I would not bet against him.

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Aaron David Miller Former State Department official; Wilson Center scholar; author :

2012 is still an eternity away, and the black hole of our economy can still pull the incumbent down. But right now you'd have to bet on Obama. He's got no primary challenger, he's got plenty of money, his personal approval ratings are high and he faces (still) a weak and undefined Republican field.

The president also has history on his side. American politics at the state and congressional levels are polarized and dysfunctional. And channeling and breathless and willfully polarizing media coverage add to the confusion, clutter and chatter.

At the same time, Americans have sought a certain stability and predictability in the one office that they actually have the capacity to shape -- at least in the voting booth. Since 1980, only one president has failed to secure reelection to a second term. So the odds are clearly in Obama's favor; and I might add historic should he win. A reelected Obama will make for only the second time in American history that we've had three different consecutive two-term presidents. For all you presidential trivia buffs, the last time was Jefferson, Madison and Monroe.

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Christopher Hahn Democratic consultant :

I believe Obama will be reelected. These numbers confirm what we all suspect. Likability matters in American politics. Americans like Obama even after two years of the harshest personal attacks faced by a president in modern times.

The only likable contender, Huckabee, dropped out, leaving unknown and harsh personalities in the race for the GOP nomination.

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Greg Dworkin Contributing Editor, Daily Kos :

The last two weeks have been very good for the president and very bad for the GOP. The public is not satisfied with the Republican field and don’t like Paul Ryan’s budget, highlighting the fact that you can’t beat something with nothing. They also don’t care for Obama’s handling of the economy but grudgingly recognize the enormity of the mess he inherited from a Republican, respect his leadership, appreciate his work ethic, and don’t see anyone else doing better. They also like him as a person.

Together, this means many hard-fought state battles that Obama will likely win enough of to serve a second term. And since Americans prefer divided government, there’ll be a tendency to vote for him even if the winds are blowing in a different direction for Congress. Odds of reelection? In the 60s, though the actual vote will be closer. The question will be “what will losing mean for the GOP’s agenda?”

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Ohio has supported the winner in 27 of the last 29 presidential elections. It is perhaps the nation's most critical swing state. But it will turn against Obama if he does not provide jobs real soon !

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Pittsburgh Tribune-Review -
As Go Jobs, So Goes Ohio -
By Salena Zito -
Salena Zito is a Pittsburgh Tribune-Review editorial page columnist -
POWHATAN POINT, Ohio
May 15, 2011


As Go Jobs, So Goes Ohio


Some excerpts :

Joyce McNears peers over her reading glasses and asks a question, expecting no answer: "Why is the president still not talking about jobs?"

Along with her son and grandson, the 66-year-old McNears matriarch is counting stock and rearranging shelves in the family hardware store that has seen good times and bad times in this Ohio River town.

Lately, times have been bad.

Joyce has lived in Belmont County and voted for Democrats all her life. Yet President Barack Obama and U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown, both Democrats, won't get her vote next year.

Belmont went for Obama in 2008 but voted against his policies in 2010, when the Democrat-rich county went for Republican Rob Portman for U.S. Senate.

That's a problem for Democrats going into 2012 because Ohio has supported the winner in 27 of the last 29 presidential elections. It is perhaps the nation's most critical swing state.

"Democrats had an awful time in Ohio in 2010 and arguably did as bad there last November as anywhere in the country," says Kyle Kondik, a political analyst at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.

A lot of that awfulness involves the economy and jobs.

Ohio was hit particularly hard when the recession barreled through in 2007. By 2009, after stimulus dollars failed to improve the state's unemployment rate (higher than the national average), and after bailouts and spending issues raised concern about the nation's future debt, Ohio became the first state to hand Obama chilling disapproval ratings.

Going forward, economic predictions are cloudy at best.

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The Jewish Week : "Mitt Romney is the most electable of the current GOP pack – but possibly the least nominatable because of the influence of the Tea Partiers and the evangelicals on the nomination process"

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Yes, Mitt Romney is rich, handsome, experienced, moderate, even wise, but the Primary Process will be very brutal thanks to the Tea Party influence, and the importance of evangelicals in the Republican Party

The Jewish Week
Huck out, Jewish GOP givers waiting for a winner?
by James Besser
Sunday, May 15, 2011



Some excerpts :

GOP sources continue to tell me that two things are happening in the party right now. Old-line Jewish Republicans continue to stick with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, seen by many as the most moderate and the most business-oriented contender.

But there are also concerns about whether Romney will survive a Republican primary season that will be shaped to a large degree by the Tea Party movement, as well as by the Christian conservatives who are a big part of the party's base. The fact is, big campaign givers want to back a WINNER, and at this stage it's far from clear who has the best chance to both survive a brutal GOP primary season AND beat President Obama.

The Tea Partiers don't like Romney because he's...well, so establishment.. Many of the Christian conservatives agree, and then there's the Mormon problem; there is still a big segment of evangelical Christianity that sees Mormonism as a dangerous cult.

The result of that uncertainty: while Romney is probably at the head of the pack when it comes to Jewish fundraising, a lot of Jews who generally give to GOP candidates are sitting on the sidelines, waiting to see how the race shapes up between now and the first primary in 2012.

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But at this stage, it seems to me, the targets are Jewish campaign givers, not Jewish voters, and the race is all about who is the most electable in 2012 and – secondarily – who is the most business-friendly. Positions on Israel are important, but at this stage probably a second tier factor.

Oddly, some political pros I talk to continue to say Romney is the most electable of the current GOP pack – but possibly the least nominatable because of the influence of the Tea Partiers and the evangelicals on the nomination process.

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