Steve Murphy Democratic consultant :
"It seems that Mike Huckabee believes President Obama will be elected and Gov. Huckabee is more credible on the matter than me"
POLITICO.COM "The Arena" Forum -
Obama's reelection odds ? -
May. 16, 2011
Obama's reelection odds ?
This is a selection of the best opinions ( in different order to what Politico presents ) :
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Steve Murphy Democratic consultant; Managing Partner at Murphy Vogel Askew Reilly :
It seems that Mike Huckabee believes President Obama will be elected and Gov. Huckabee is more credible on the matter than me.
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Seung Min Kim Moderator :
A majority of Americans like President Barack Obama and are open to reelecting him, despite widespread disapproval of his handling of the economy, according to a POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll released today.
Fifty-two percent of Americans approve of Obama’s handling of the presidency, and 72 percent approve of him personally. And while his uptick in approval ratings could be attributed to the killing of Osama bin Laden, 84 percent of respondents said bin Laden’s death makes “no difference” in whether they vote for Obama.
Meanwhile, 57 percent say they disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy.
With those numbers in mind, and recognizing that there is no named GOP challenger against Obama yet, what’s your current assessment of Obama’s reelection chances?
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Dewey Clayton Professor of Political Science, University of Louisville :
It is a long time between now and the election in November 2012 and anything can happen. However, President Obama is a popular president who has created a new coalition of voters of different races, ethnicities and age groups.
In 2004, Obama increased the turnout of African-Americans and Latino voters as they voted in larger numbers than in 2004, and by marked support of the Democratic candidate. Latinos are now the largest minority group in the nation, and their share of the electorate will grow substantially as the children of recent immigrants become eligible to vote. The total effect of ethnic minorities was to add more than 7 million votes to Obama's tally in 2008.
And although minority votes played a substantial role in Obama's victory in 2004, he would not have won that election but for his support from white voters. Obama captured 43 percent of the white vote. Obama ignored the conventional wisdom of political analysts who argued that Democrats should forget about capturing the South because it is beyond the Democrats' reach.
Obama instituted a new "Southern Strategy." Obama saw the South as fertile ground for electoral college votes and he aggressively courted that region. Unlike his Democratic predecessors, Obama spent time and poured considerable financial resources into the region. As a result, he was victorious in Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. Two of those states -- Virginia, and North Carolina -- had only voted Democratic once since 1964 -- North Carolina in 1976 -- Obama, nevertheless, aggressively pursued both.
Moreover, the Democratic National Committee has chosen Charlotte, N.C., as the site of the 2012 Democratic National Convention. This is a clear sign that Obama sees that the South and demographic groups that are important to his candidacy in that region -- younger voters, African-American voters, Hispanics, and educated whites -- as supportive of his candidacy.
Moreover, recent demographic trends show that African-American voters, who left the South for the North during the Great Migration that started in the early 20th century, are now returning to the South in large numbers.
Obama has effectively put together a new coalition of voters for the 21st century. One major pillar of that coalition is white voters with college or post-graduate degrees, many of them professionals with white-collar occupations. Obama won 47 percent of those highly educated whites in 2008. He carried 52 percent of college-educated white women and 42 percent of college-educated white men. This trend bodes well for Obama because over the last 10 years, more college-educated suburban whites have been moving in the Democratic column.
Lastly, Obama is projected to have a huge campaign chest with some estimates as high as $1 billion. Given the considerable advantages of being an incumbent president, his personal popularity, charisma, and formidable campaigning skills, he is currently in a good position to win reelection. Moreover, the Republican Party at this stage in the election cycle, has yet to identify a strong field of candidates to seek the nomination of their party to run against Obama.
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Brendan Daly Ogilvy Washington; former Pelosi communications director :
President Obama has a very good chance of being re-elected. That was true even before the successful raid of Osama bin Laden, but the aftermath of the decision to target bin Laden has demonstrated that the President is a strong, decisive leader who can produce results. Of course, the election is a long way off and things can change dramatically between now and then, particularly if the economy weakens and gas prices continue to rise. But right now, the President’s ability to lead far outstrips any of his potential Republican rivals. None of them is particularly inspiring, which is why many GOP leaders continue to ask for more candidates to get into the race.
The economy will be of far more importance than this poll shows, but under the President’s leadership, the economy is slowly moving in the right direction, with private sector jobs growing every month. In fact, the number of private sector jobs created last month was the largest rise in private sector employment in five years.
There is a long way to go, both for the economy and for the election. But right now, the President’s strong numbers demonstrate he will be a formidable candidate for re-election. I would not bet against him.
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Aaron David Miller Former State Department official; Wilson Center scholar; author :
2012 is still an eternity away, and the black hole of our economy can still pull the incumbent down. But right now you'd have to bet on Obama. He's got no primary challenger, he's got plenty of money, his personal approval ratings are high and he faces (still) a weak and undefined Republican field.
The president also has history on his side. American politics at the state and congressional levels are polarized and dysfunctional. And channeling and breathless and willfully polarizing media coverage add to the confusion, clutter and chatter.
At the same time, Americans have sought a certain stability and predictability in the one office that they actually have the capacity to shape -- at least in the voting booth. Since 1980, only one president has failed to secure reelection to a second term. So the odds are clearly in Obama's favor; and I might add historic should he win. A reelected Obama will make for only the second time in American history that we've had three different consecutive two-term presidents. For all you presidential trivia buffs, the last time was Jefferson, Madison and Monroe.
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Christopher Hahn Democratic consultant :
I believe Obama will be reelected. These numbers confirm what we all suspect. Likability matters in American politics. Americans like Obama even after two years of the harshest personal attacks faced by a president in modern times.
The only likable contender, Huckabee, dropped out, leaving unknown and harsh personalities in the race for the GOP nomination.
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Greg Dworkin Contributing Editor, Daily Kos :
The last two weeks have been very good for the president and very bad for the GOP. The public is not satisfied with the Republican field and don’t like Paul Ryan’s budget, highlighting the fact that you can’t beat something with nothing. They also don’t care for Obama’s handling of the economy but grudgingly recognize the enormity of the mess he inherited from a Republican, respect his leadership, appreciate his work ethic, and don’t see anyone else doing better. They also like him as a person.
Together, this means many hard-fought state battles that Obama will likely win enough of to serve a second term. And since Americans prefer divided government, there’ll be a tendency to vote for him even if the winds are blowing in a different direction for Congress. Odds of reelection? In the 60s, though the actual vote will be closer. The question will be “what will losing mean for the GOP’s agenda?”
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