"If in May 2007 you bet that then Sen. Obama would get the Democratic nomination and win the general election with 53% of the vote you could have paid off your grandkids mortgage."
POLITICO.COM "The Arena" Forum : Could Obama really win Texas ?
Some excerpts :
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Martin Frost Attorney, former Democratic congressman :
He could be in the ballgame if he made a multi-million dollar investment - something Democrats have been unwilling to do for many years. It's all about money.
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Christine Pelosi Attorney, author and Democratic activist :
President Obama must compete in Texas - he needs all the millions of votes he can get to recapture the national popular vote and the undemocratic Electoral College. Demographics are changing in Texas but the wild card is whether Gov. Rick Perry is on the Republican ticket. The GOP field is still wide open, so we cannot discount a charismatic Southern governor with tea party appeal and national connections who could jump in and become an instant frontrunner.
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Peter Roff Sr. fellow, Institute for Liberty; U.S. News & World Report contributing editor :
It’s neither. It’s political gamesmanship. By announcing that he intends to try and win Texas, President Obama is hoping to force the GOP to spend money fighting for a state they should, by all rights, own in the next election. If the GOP candidate has to work to keep Texas in the Republican column that means the Republicans will have to divert resources from other critical states that like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida that should be competitive in the next election.
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Thomas E. Mann
Thomas E. Mann Senior Fellow, Governance Studies, Brookings :
Without a national landslide, it is unlikely that Obama could win Texas. But making the effort there might give a boost to other Democratic candidates in the state, strengthen the effort in other states to mobilize Hispanic voters, and force the Republicans to invest resources in holding their largest state. A billion dollar budget allows one to consider such investments.
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Jeff Smith
Jeff Smith Former Missouri state senator; political science professor :
If more moderate Texas Dems have been unable to win one of 29 statewide offices, I think it'll take at least 4-8 more years of demographic change - and Obama-led comprehensive immigration reform in 2013 - for national Dems to win Texas.
If Obama wins Texas in '12, he won't have needed Texas to win re-election.
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Alvin S. Felzenberg 9/11 Commission Spokesman, Book Author and Professor :
Methinks this wishful thinking on the president's part. If I am wrong, Texas could be the whole ballgame. If the Republicans come to share Obama's assessment, look for them to find a way to draft Jeb Bush, whatever his protestations and whatever you hear about brokered conventions being a thing of the past. Dropouts of other candidates could start a stampede.
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Christopher Hahn
Christopher Hahn Democratic consultant :
Why not try? There is a huge Latino population and several progressive population centers. I don't know if he can win Texas but he sure can make the GOP spend resources to hold it.
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David Meadvin Inkwell Strategies; former Harry Reid speechwriter :
If Republicans nominate Palin, Trump or Gingrich, Texas and a number of other states will be on the table. Short of that, the Obama campaign knows that no scenario exists where the election hinges on Texas (if they're winning Texas, they're winning 400 electoral votes). So if they're putting money and time in Texas, it's more about a statement of strength than an electoral map strategy.
The Obama campaign also realizes that playing in Texas -- and narrowing the final score -- could be an important organizing tool and morale boost for Democrats' efforts to keep the White House in 2016, when demographic shifts could make Texas a legitimate purple state.
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Mike Fraioli President, Fraioli & Associates :
Winning Texas does not appear likely for President Obama. But if in May 2007 you bet that then Sen. Obama would get the Democratic nomination and win the general election with 53% of the vote you could have paid off your grandkids mortgage.
If the Obama campaign can reach its fundraising goal, it should have plenty of money early on to make a play in Texas without shortchanging key targets like Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
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Peter Wielhouwer
Peter Wielhouwer Associate Professor of Political Science, Western Michigan University :
Obama's ability to win Texas is marginal at best. He won about 43% of the vote there in 2008, about the same as the best recent Dem performances (Clinton 1996 and Dukakis 1988). To his credit, he won many more votes in Texas than any previous Dem, at 4.48 million, compared with an average of about 3.5 million over the previous three elections, while McCain's vote numbers declined from Bush's 2004 performance.
The question seems to hinge on the Latino vote and whether Texas Independents will be as excited about Obama 2.0 as they were about Obama 1.0, moving them to the polls in significant numbers. Latino mobilization seems unlikely to move at a rate sufficient to overcome the Texas normal GOP vote; the mobilization capacity of Obama 2012 is probably weaker than it was in 2008. The only real hope for winning the state is if an extraordinarily bad - not weak, but bad - Republican candidate wins the nomination, keeping large swaths of GOP voters home on Election Day.
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Greg Dworkin Contributing Editor, Daily Kos :
Sure, Obama could win Texas. Doesn't mean he will, but he could. He will have the resources, the demographic makeup of Texas is shifting and the opponent will have weaknesses. And competing there makes the GOP spend resources they'd rather spend in Virgina and Arizona and Ohio. The times, they are a-changin'.
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Darrell M. West Vice President, Governance Studies, Brookings :
It is wishful thinking for Democrats to believe Obama will carry Texas in the 2012 general election. But that doesn’t mean the president can’t be successful in raising money there. His fundraisers yesterday in Austin demonstrate that even in Republican states, there are individuals who are willing to support the president and bankroll his campaign operations elsewhere. That is the real message of Texas, money not votes.
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