20 years ago; all the heavyweights Democrats : Mario Cuomo, Ted Kennedy, Al Gore -- were sitting out a race against an incumbent president, leaving the field to a group of second- raters. Out of the pack emerged a nominee, the governor of Arkansas, who proved to be a pretty fair politician

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BLOOMBERG.COM : Republican Candidates that have to win in Iowa or New Hampshire if they want to stay competitive. -

Presidential Primaries may produce many surprises and unexpected results in the era of Twitter, Facebook, Social Networks, Internet, etc ...

BLOOMBERG.COM
Republicans Can Stop Waiting for 2012 White Knight
By Albert Hunt
May 29, 2011


Republicans Can Stop Waiting for 2012 White Knight


Some excerpts :

There are crucial early decisions that will shape the outcome. It’s a good bet the ultimate nominee will win either the Iowa caucuses or the New Hampshire primary. That has been the case with 17 of the past 18 major party nominees, the exception being Bill Clinton in 1992, when there wasn’t a contest in the Iowa caucuses.

Iowa, where social conservatives and the religious right have a disproportionate influence, is a must-win for Bachmann, or for Palin, for that matter. It’s hard to see a path to the nomination for Pawlenty if he can’t win in his neighboring state.

Other candidates such as Huntsman probably will skip Iowa. The toughest decision will be for Romney, the frontrunner, who finished second in the Hawkeye State in 2008. If he makes only a token effort and Pawlenty wins, it could jeopardize his front- running status, as could a major effort that’s unsuccessful. As of late last week, the Romney campaign was still undecided on Iowa.

Romney and Huntsman, and Giuliani, if he runs, have to win in more secular New Hampshire or it will be next to impossible for them to capture the nomination.

The jump-start theory of presidential primaries -- to try to show and place in Iowa or New Hampshire, and then win a big subsequent state, like Florida or Michigan -- is always a fool’s errand, as Giuliani learned four years ago. The problem is that the winners of those two early states have the momentum to blow right past the jump-starters.

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