Monday, August 8, 2011

Gamblers, Bettors and Bookies - Betting money on the Winner of the Ames Iowa Straw Poll (Aug 13th) : Michele Bachmann $58.9 - Ron Paul $34.9 - Tim Pawlenty $10.5 - Intimate Secrets and History of Ames Iowa Straw Poll

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You have to bet $58.9 on Michelle Bachmann to win $100 .... - This is data from betting house INTRADE.COM.

Republican Thursday’s debate and Saturday’s straw poll in Ames Iowa, Mitt Romney and Rick Perry do not participate, other candidates are irrelevant for this straw poll.

Link :


Ames Iowa Straw Poll in Wikipedia

Some excerpts :

The Ames Straw Poll is a straw poll that takes place in Ames, Iowa, on a Saturday in August of years in an election cycle in which the Republican presidential nomination seems to be undecided (that is, in years without an incumbent Republican President running for re-election). Though several different pre-Iowa Caucus straw polls take place in Iowa, the Ames Straw Poll is by far the most prominent, because it draws voters from all over the state rather than just the local area (Ames is near the geographic center of Iowa, making travel there more convenient), and is thus also commonly known as the Iowa Straw Poll. The Ames Straw Poll was first held in 1979.

The 2011 Ames Straw Poll is scheduled for August 13, 2011 at the Hilton Coliseum on the campus of Iowa State University.


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Format

The poll takes place among attendees of a fundraising dinner benefiting the Iowa Republican Party. Before the vote, each candidate is given a chance to make a short speech to the attendees.

The poll has been described as a cross between a political convention and a county fair, where Iowa voters have a chance to mingle, eat barbecue and have a little fun. The party divides the venue into sections and auctions each to the candidates, who can then set up booths to present their case to the voters. The larger areas and those closest to the entrance often fetch the highest price. In 2011 bidding started at $15,000 and ranged to as high as $31,000 (bid by Ron Paul). [1]

Non-Republicans are allowed to vote in the Ames Straw Poll. However, all voters must be 18 years of age on or before the Presidential election date, be legal residents of the state of Iowa or a student attending an Iowa university/college, and purchase a ticket to the fundraising dinner.[2] Voters have their hands stamped or their thumbs dipped in ink when entering the voting area so that they cannot vote twice. Ballots are put into electronic voting machines.
[edit] Significance

As a straw poll, the Ames Straw Poll's results are non-binding and have no official effect on the presidential primaries. However, the straw poll is frequently seen as a first test of organizational strength in Iowa by the news media and party insiders. As such, it can become very beneficial for the winning candidate on the national level because it builds momentum for their campaign, enhances their aura of inevitability, and shows off a superior field operation.[3]

Since its founding, the winner of the Ames Straw Poll has gone on to win the Republican presidential nomination two out of five times. Three out of five winners (including one of the winners of the 1995 tie) have gone on to win the Iowa Caucuses.

On a more local level, the Ames Straw Poll gives a major boost to the local economy.[4] Thousands of people, including journalists, campaign staffers, and voters, arrive in town around the time of the poll. The Ames Straw Poll is one of the Iowa Republican Party's most lucrative fundraising events.[4]
[edit] Criticisms

The Ames Straw Poll was formerly criticized for having many voters who were not residents of Iowa. Candidates would bus in supporters from other states. However, beginning with the 1999 Ames Straw Poll, all voters were required to show proof of legal residence in Iowa.[4] Before the 1999 Ames Straw Poll, voter fraud was widespread[citation needed]: many individuals managed to vote repeatedly by visiting the bathroom and washing off the stamp on the back of their hand which indicated they had voted. Beginning with the 1999 Ames Straw Poll, the ink used for hand-stamping was changed to one that resisted being washed off.[5] In 2007, instead of hand-stamping, thumbs were dipped in indelible ink.[6]

In 2007, the Ames Straw Poll was criticized for having only 14,302 voters participating in 2007, compared to about 23,000 voters eight years earlier in the 1999 polls, and for failing to have three of the four leading candidates participate in the poll, Rudolph Giuliani, John McCain and Fred Thompson. Consequently the votes received by Mitt Romney and second-place finisher Mike Huckabee have failed to demonstrate the consequence of full competition among all candidates.[7] The poll has been criticized for heavily favoring better-funded candidates, as better-funded candidates are able to afford transportation costs to bus in more supporters and to reimburse those supporters for meal tickets.[5] After the 2007 Ames Straw Poll, some Ron Paul supporters contended that the Premier Election Solutions (formerly Diebold Election Systems) voting machines were inaccurate or rigged.[8] They said that the announced vote was much fewer than the number of tickets sold and that exit polls showed Paul doing much better.
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