New York Mag : Jonathan Chait : "Defeating an incumbent president, historically, seems to require either a major scandal, a failed war, or a terrible economy. We have a terrible economy. But the direction seems to matter more than the level"

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"It’s looking more and more like a real recovery may finally be upon us" - "Today's report of 200,000 new jobs in December and 8.5 percent unemployment seems to fit a general trend. Jobless claims have fallen steadily, forecasters expect to see fast growth in the fourth quarter of 2011, and some of the disasters that held back the economy in the last year (the Japanese tsunami, the Libya oil shock, the Republican debt-ceiling hostage crisis) have all receded".

New York Magazine
The Economy Might Save Obama After All
By Jonathan Chait
January 6, 2012


The Economy Might Save Obama After All


Some excerpts :

Ronald Reagan famously cruised to reelection with a high unemployment rate because the economy bounced back from the deep but quick 1982 recession. Mitt Romney has made the state of the economy his central theme against Obama. The entire premise of his campaign is that the economy is bad because Obama's economic program has failed.

If voters think the economy is improving, Romney has no ammunition left. That is still the smart play for Romney, because if the economy feels strong, he probably can't win anyway, so he needs to plan for the scenario that gives him a chance to win. A few months ago, that scenario was looking almost certain. Now it's looking far less likely.

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