Very Bad News for GOP in HuffPost : "It was Independents who participated in the Democratic caucuses four years ago that enabled turnout in this year's Iowa Republican caucuses to keep pace with the 2008 levels"

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"These Independents preferred spending their evening participating in an actual election contest rather than in a party organizing meeting"

This is an Article in the Huffington Post by Michael P. McDonald and this is my comment :

Some polls are detecting a lack of enthusiasm in Republicans. Some Independents and Democrats are going to the Republican Caucuses and increase the turnout. The Big Tea Party Fervor of 2010 is nowhere to be seen.

This is my intuition : If Obama gets the votes of these Independentes and Democrats that go to Republican Caucuses then the GOP loses the November Presidential Election for lack of fervor and enthusiasm.

Huffington Post
The Tea Party Fever Has Broken
By Michael P. McDonald
Associate Professor, George Mason University
Januar 4, 2012


The Tea Party Fever Has Broken


Some excerpts :

A pre-caucus PPP poll indicated that 15% of prospective Republican caucusgoers reported participating in the Democratic caucus in 2008. With 236,000 people voting in the Democratic caucus, that means the Republican caucus were inundated with 35,400 more participants that were active on the Democratic side four years ago.

The media entrance polls further support that some people who participated in the Democratic caucuses in 2008 participated in the Republican caucuses in 2012 -- although the pollsters did not directly ask this question. In 2008, only 13% of polled caucusgoers reported being an independent. In 2012, this percentage of independents increased to 23%. (These folks predominantly supported Ron Paul, followed by Mitt Romney.) Without these crossover Independents, turnout in the Iowa Republican caucuses would have declined. And without them, Romney would not have won his squeaker victory.

Politicians running for office this November should take notice. The extraordinary Tea Party enthusiasm that buoyed Republican candidates in 2010 is unlikely to repeat itself. And on top of weakening Tea Party enthusiasm, we are assured that November turnout will be higher for pro-Democratic groups, such as young people.

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