My Prophecy of Defeat for the Republican Party in November 2012 :
The number of people that identify themselves as Republicans is down by 10 percent overall through the first four voting states. This is giving me the impression that this year we could witness a great defeat for Republicans. Because I see no enthusiasm in the Republican Base.
Of course I am a humble guy and I could be wrong, but I would not bet a single penny for Mitt Romney when I see such low turnout in Republican Primaries. In fact bets at INTRADE.COM are 55.8% for the reelection of President Obama.
It is my very strong conviction and persuasion that Turnout at the Republican Primaries is a predictor of Republican Turnout in the General Presidential Election.
New York Times
Romney Wins, but Turnout Lags
By NATE SILVER
January 31, 2012
Romney Wins, but Turnout Lags
In the first three early-voting states, Republican turnout was up from 2008 — just slightly in Iowa and New Hampshire, but significantly in South Carolina, where it jumped by 35 percent.
The pattern did not hold in Florida on Tuesday. With nearly all of the votes counted, Republican turnout is about 1.7 million. By comparison, just under 2 million Republicans voted in Republican primary there in 2008.
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And the results are somewhat worse for the G.O.P. if you look turnout only among voters who identified as Republican in exit polls in the early-voting states. This is arguably the more relevant comparison because Democrats do not have a competitive nomination race this year, freeing up voters who might have voted in the Democratic primary to vote in the Republican one instead.
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Among Republican identifiers, turnout was down by 11 percent in Iowa, by 15 percent in New Hampshire and by 16 percent in Florida. It is also down by 10 percent overall through the first four voting states.
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