William Galston : Obama’s reelection prospects have brightened considerably because Americans now believe their country’s economic health is improving. Obama’s re-election will depend on whether they continue believing so in the nine months until election day

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The New Republic
The Obama Campaign Has Momentum, But Can It Keep It?
February 16, 2012

By William Galston
William Galston is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a contributing editor at The New Republic.

The Obama Campaign Has Momentum, But Can It Keep It?

Some excerpts :

It turns out that the American public is an exquisitely sensitive barometer of real economic developments. Between January and September of 2011, job creation ranged from anemic to imperceptible, the number of unemployed Americans didn’t budge, and neither did the unemployment rate. Since then, the number of employed Americans has risen by 1.5 million, the number of unemployed has declined by more than 1.2 million, and the unemployment rate has declined from 9.0 to 8.3 percent. If these trends continue at this pace for the next nine months, Obama will be sworn in for a second term.

Still, as so often happens, the consensus has shifted too abruptly, moving from “Obama’s toast” to “none of these bums can beat him.” Obama’s chances may have improved, but 2012 is still a close race and will remain so unless the economy outperforms most expectations.

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The bottom line: Romney is bloodied but not mortally wounded, while the president is doing better but is not yet out of danger. And despite Santorum’s rapid rise, which could lead to his nomination if he prevails in Michigan, the evidence currently available does not sustain what is becoming the core argument of his primary campaign—that in the industrial Midwest, his alleged blue-collar appeal would make him a stronger general election candidate than Romney against Obama. Romney and Obama as favorites, Santorum as a long-shot: The overall political situation has changed since last fall, but not as much as many people think. In the minds of swing voters, the economy will still be the deciding factor.

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