Next Presidential Elections : Concepts of Mathematics, Probability, Physics and Game Theory in the Swing States and Electoral College, Physical Inertia, Geography of Minorities. Democrats greatly favored for Presidency but not for House or Senate

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This is Independent of Candidates, because conditions of Geography of Minorities and Swing States, Electoral College Math, and Demography may condemn the Republican Party in Presidentials. Democrats may enjoy a Big Advantage for decades.

Obama enjoyed Mathematical advantages for Electoral College superior to those Democrats that ran for the Presidency before him.

AlterNet.Org
Dominance: The New Democratic Voting Base Is an Electoral Steamroller
Nominate Jeb Bush or Bobby Jindal. It doesn't matter: The Electoral College now favors the Democrats. Have the Democrats opened up a real Electoral College advantage over the Republicans?

By Jonathan Bernstein
December 1, 2012


Dominance: The New Democratic Voting Base Is an Electoral Steamroller

Some excerpts :

I’m not talking about the illusion of an advantage that comes with winning consecutive elections. That might be the result of a streak in which the party is helped by favorable fundamentals, or it can be, as with Democratic majorities in the New Deal era, simply part of a national advantage. In either case, a party might win the same states every time, but — as Republicans discovered in 1992 — when those favorable conditions end, the apparent electoral “lock” disappears, too.

No, I’m talking about an Electoral College edge above and beyond the national vote. That’s not defined by which states went for which candidate; it’s found by looking at what would have happened in the Electoral College if an election had been tied in the national vote. To calculate it, assume uniform swing – that is, if swing state Ohio moves toward the Democrats, then liberal Vermont and conservative Utah will also move toward the Democrats by the same amount. In reality, the states don’t swing quite that equally, but they’re very close to it.

Usually, Electoral College advantages have been very small, and they flip back and forth between the parties – during the 2000 election, when George W. Bush wound up winning because of a very slim Electoral College advantage, polls throughout most of the contest actually showed a slight Electoral College edge for Al Gore. However, in the last two election cycles, Democrats have suddenly enjoyed a substantial bias in their favor.

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