The New Republic : The difference between a primary campaign that lasts two weeks and one that lasts two months could make all the difference in the world for Barack Obama. And Rick Santorum now has the power to make it happen

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Rick Santorum probably won't be the Republican Nominee, but he can kill all the hopes of Mitt Romney to be President.

The New Republic
How Rick Santorum Could Cost Romney the Presidency
By Noam Scheiber
January 4, 2012


How Rick Santorum Could Cost Romney the Presidency


Some excerpts :

Last night we re-learned an important lesson from 2008: In Iowa, the Republican candidate with momentum way exceeds his final poll numbers; the Republican candidate named Mitt Romney ... doesn’t. In 2008, Mike Huckabee exceeded his final polling average by about five points; Romney actually dropped off by about a point-and-a-half. This time out, Rick Santorum exceeded his final polling average by almost ten points. Romney was up about two-and-a-half.

In both cases, the explanation was pretty obvious: Romney was well known heading into caucus night and not much loved. People who hadn’t decided to support him beforehand were unlikely to do it on the spot. By contrast, Santorum was positioned to scoop up anyone who showed up thinking they’d support Perry or Gingrich or Bachmann then decided they’d like to back someone who had a chance of winning. Thus it was that Santorum ended up crashing Romney’s coronation.

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Now, the press will dwell on Romney’s vulnerability. We’ll point out that, despite his best efforts, three-quarters of the Republican primary electorate still won’t give him the time of day. Though he’ll almost certainly still win New Hampshire, the margin will be smaller than it otherwise would have been, perhaps much smaller. Santorum may well come out of New Hampshire with more momentum than Romney, since the bar there is so low for him, and since the boost he gets going in will be much bigger after fighting Romney to a draw in Iowa. That creates real danger for Romney as the two men head into South Carolina, a state where social conservatives predominate and Mormons struggle.

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