Obama could boost Latino turnout by fighting against SB 1070, with a limited downside if most of the hardcore opposition to the measure is likely to vote for his Republican opponent in any event. Swing voters might disagree with the president on the point but will cast their votes on what they perceive as bigger issues

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POLITICO.COM
Suing Arizona: The political pros and cons
By JOSH GERSTEIN
November 19, 2011


Suing Arizona: The political pros and cons


Some excerpts :

“Elections are about two things: turning out your base and winning the middle….The calculation is one that obviously the president is not doing as well with Latinos as he did four years ago,” said Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown. “The possibility that illegal immigration becomes a front-burner issue in the presidential campaign offers, perhaps, the opportunity for him to reclaim his support.”

The Justice Department has denied that political concerns are at play in their decisions about which state laws to challenge. However, a Justice spokeswoman acknowledged that the White House was “consulted” about the decisions to sue.

“These lawsuits were brought by the Department of Justice and reflect our judgment about the laws’ constitutional and other legal defects. The laws challenged thus far clearly conflict with federal immigration law and enforcement priorities,” spokeswoman Xochitl Hinojosa said. “Prior to filing these suits, we appropriately consulted with other Departments in the Executive Branch, as well as with the White House, given the important legal issues raised.”

But the department’s choice of targets has certainly coincided with the Obama campaign’s 2012 electoral strategy. Arizona, Alabama and South Carolina are not states Obama is expected to win - and neither are Georgia and Utah, which have passed similar laws but have not yet been subject to legal action.

On the other hand, several states with major Latino populations that might be fired up by a big SB 1070 fight—places like Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico—are must-wins for the Obama campaign.

“They’re really not concerned with the national vote, but with their core Latino voters and independent voters in states they don’t want to lose,” Chishti said. “My feeling is independent voters, while not approving of the stance Obama has taken opposing 1070, it’s not a huge, critical issue for them…..and if it [isn’t] the Obama campaign would rather appeal for the Latino vote, for whom it is the No.1 issue.”

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One critic of the administration’s lawsuits, Mark Krikorian of the Center for Immigration Studies, said Obama might benefit from arguing the case in the Supreme Court and then losing it.

“The administration had a political incentive to file these cases to show their left flank and racial identity groups…they’re doing something, but it’s in [the Obama team’s] interest to lose in the Supreme Court so it’s not quite as contentious an issue in these states.”

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Potentially the most political damage to Obama could be done in Virginia, widely considered crucial to his re-election and a hotbed over the years for anti-illegal immigration sentiment. That sentiment flared again last year when an illegal immigrant from Bolivia who had been ordered deported but never actually removed from the country drove drunk, killing a nun.

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Others say that such misgivings about Obama are sure to fade away by election day, as Latinos face a choice between the incumbent and a GOP nominee likely to be far more hostile to illegal immigrants than Obama.

“At the end of the day, they’re going to be confronted with the alternative, which is some people who believe people should be electrocuted if they try to cross the border,” Chishti said. “At that point, it will be irresponsible for the leadership to tell the base to vote against the president or stay home. What’s at stake for the next election for immigration is very high.”

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