This is an Important and excellent article in "The New Republic" by William Galston, I agree with him, this is a dangerous election - First I comment my impressions, feelings, intuitions and crazy divinations, right or wrong, and later I present the article of William Galston :
The other option for Obama that Galston rejects is bad and poor strategy for the President : that is "2008 on steroids" :
This is "mobilizing huge numbers of upscale professionals, unmarried women, young adults, and minorities—the coalition that reelected Colorado Senator Michael Bennet in 2010. This approach implies a focus on “new majority” states such as Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, North Carolina, or even Arizona and Georgia, which the Obama team reportedly regards as being within reach".
That focus on Blacks, Latinos, Asians, Native Americans, Unmarried Women, Intellectuals and Professionals with Great Education, Women's Rights, Gays, Lesbians and others, won't work so well as capturing the White Working Class Men in the Midwest and center of the Nation.
Obama should concentrate in Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Michigan, Add North Carolina if you Wish.
Latinos in Florida, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, etc .... won't be enough. To think that Obama can capture Georgia or Arizona is extremely naive and a very difficult proposition but it is not impossible.
To think that Obama is going to capture Texas is Madness, but as always I say that nothing is impossible and that State should be worked for Obama and the Democrats. The more grass roots people working in Texas for Obama, the better. That would endanger the Republicans.
The New Republic
Why Obama’s 2008 Coalition Won’t Save Him This Time
By William Galston
November 8, 201The other option for Obama that Galston rejects is bad and poor strategy for the President : that is "2008 on steroids" :
This is "mobilizing huge numbers of upscale professionals, unmarried women, young adults, and minorities—the coalition that reelected Colorado Senator Michael Bennet in 2010. This approach implies a focus on “new majority” states such as Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, North Carolina, or even Arizona and Georgia, which the Obama team reportedly regards as being within reach".
That focus on Blacks, Latinos, Asians, Native Americans, Unmarried Women, Intellectuals and Professionals with Great Education, Women's Rights, Gays, Lesbians and others, won't work so well as capturing the White Working Class Men in the Midwest and center of the Nation.
Obama should concentrate in Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Michigan, Add North Carolina if you Wish.
Latinos in Florida, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, etc .... won't be enough. To think that Obama can capture Georgia or Arizona is extremely naive and a very difficult proposition but it is not impossible.
To think that Obama is going to capture Texas is Madness, but as always I say that nothing is impossible and that State should be worked for Obama and the Democrats. The more grass roots people working in Texas for Obama, the better. That would endanger the Republicans.
The New Republic
Why Obama’s 2008 Coalition Won’t Save Him This Time
By William Galston
Why Obama’s 2008 Coalition Won’t Save Him This Time
Some excerpts :
For reasons that I’ve laid out at length in “One Year to Go: Barack Obama’s Uphill Battle for Reelection in 2012,” the latter is the course more likely to succeed in the end. Briefly: It won’t be possible to recreate the political context that permitted the extraordinary mobilization of young adults and Hispanics in 2008. And it’s no accident that no Democrat since JFK has won the presidency without carrying Ohio, which is a demographic, economic, and political microcosm of the country as a whole. Most Democrats remember that Obama’s share of the popular vote topped John Kerry’s by 5 percentage points. They are likely to forget, however that liberals contributed less than one point to that increase, while moderates contributed about two and a half points and conservatives, about one and a half. Reenergizing the party’s liberal base is a necessary but not sufficient condition for victory next year.
This latter strategy—rebuilding support among Independents—implies that Obama’s task is one of persuasion as well as mobilization. He will have to convince some of the voters he has lost since his inauguration to give him a second look and another chance. This may seem to be mission impossible. If it turns out to be, his chances of winning reelection are remote.
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