20 years ago; all the heavyweights Democrats : Mario Cuomo, Ted Kennedy, Al Gore -- were sitting out a race against an incumbent president, leaving the field to a group of second- raters. Out of the pack emerged a nominee, the governor of Arkansas, who proved to be a pretty fair politician

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BLOOMBERG.COM : Republican Candidates that have to win in Iowa or New Hampshire if they want to stay competitive. -

Presidential Primaries may produce many surprises and unexpected results in the era of Twitter, Facebook, Social Networks, Internet, etc ...

BLOOMBERG.COM
Republicans Can Stop Waiting for 2012 White Knight
By Albert Hunt
May 29, 2011


Republicans Can Stop Waiting for 2012 White Knight


Some excerpts :

There are crucial early decisions that will shape the outcome. It’s a good bet the ultimate nominee will win either the Iowa caucuses or the New Hampshire primary. That has been the case with 17 of the past 18 major party nominees, the exception being Bill Clinton in 1992, when there wasn’t a contest in the Iowa caucuses.

Iowa, where social conservatives and the religious right have a disproportionate influence, is a must-win for Bachmann, or for Palin, for that matter. It’s hard to see a path to the nomination for Pawlenty if he can’t win in his neighboring state.

Other candidates such as Huntsman probably will skip Iowa. The toughest decision will be for Romney, the frontrunner, who finished second in the Hawkeye State in 2008. If he makes only a token effort and Pawlenty wins, it could jeopardize his front- running status, as could a major effort that’s unsuccessful. As of late last week, the Romney campaign was still undecided on Iowa.

Romney and Huntsman, and Giuliani, if he runs, have to win in more secular New Hampshire or it will be next to impossible for them to capture the nomination.

The jump-start theory of presidential primaries -- to try to show and place in Iowa or New Hampshire, and then win a big subsequent state, like Florida or Michigan -- is always a fool’s errand, as Giuliani learned four years ago. The problem is that the winners of those two early states have the momentum to blow right past the jump-starters.

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The Secret Weapon of President Obama is not the Bad Republican Governors doing stupidities - It is his personality - The Clinton Nutcracker in 2008 could not crack the Hard Obama nut : that is endurance, resilience under stress

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The Clinton pliers could not bend, cut or crush Senator Obama - He has also showed boldness, audacity, courage, valor, bravery under stress and danger.... We saw that in the Osama Bin Laden Assassination Covert Operation ( Navy Seals, Delta Forces, etc ) .... .

From the year 2008 to the present times we had to endure Bill O'Reilly, Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck ... etc ... selling the idea that Obama was a Sissy and a Coward, Add John McCain and Sarah Palin to that picture of Right Wing Bigots.

These Republicans have lost their best friend : Osama Bin Laden, the best Bogeyman to scare Children and Fools with the idea that there are many Islamic "Terrorists" under every American Bed.

Now, they tell us that Obama is easy to defeat in the Presidential Election of November 2012 - Nothing farther from the Truth, Obama is an excellent, experienced and proven campaigner ...

The Right Wing Bigots and Fox News ( pleonasm ! ) scared the fools in 2008 with the idea that Obama was inexperienced and "didn't look presidential" ..... Those foolishness worked very well until we saw Obama playing basketball like a professional in the same News Program in which John McCain traveled in a Golf Cart in the lawns like a retired Old Guy waiting for the mercy of death.

And I have not mentioned the other powerful qualities of Citizen Obama : Intelligent, Cerebral, an Intellect, Brain, Student and Professor of the Best Universities, Scholar of Laws and Decisions of the Supreme Court. By the way Obama is necessary to halt the "Conservative Judicial Activism" of SCOTUS by nominating more Liberal Justices.

Obama is not Hitler, Stalin or Citizen Kane, but is the best option to stop the many Citizen Kanes and Holligsworth Hounds ( from my favorite Comic "Lucky Ducky" ).

The guys that want to become richer and richer, by not paying taxes and denying all services to Minorities and the Poor. These Holligsworth Hounds call "Entitlements" with derision to what are natural human rights like Education and Health.

I trust God and the Good Sense of Americans to elect Obama and turn down the Scrooges of the Budget and enemies of "Obamacare" ...

America has been in a process of Relative Decline compared to other nations that are acquiring power in every sense ..... If you want to accelerate that Decline, Declination, Decay and Decadence, then vote for the Scrooges that want the Government to do nothing except firing teachers, policemen, firefighters, and public employees.

And that want to punish Women for being Women, Gays for being Gays, and Latinos for being Hispanics.

Vicente Duque

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Rick Perry’s threatens special session of Texas Legislature, opens the door for easy passage of "Sanctuary Cities" and tampering with Health Care. Rules are easy during that session but he may harm his Presidential Aspirations

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Time is running short for lots of legislation in Texas - If Perry wants to be president, he better be prudent -

The Texas Tribune -
A Sine Die Strategy? -
by Emily Ramshaw, Julian Aguilar and Thanh Tan -
May 30, 2011 -


A Sine Die Strategy?


Some excerpts :

If there is a special session for SB 1811, will lawmakers revise school finance numbers in a way that changes any outcomes — or will they just go into overtime and get the same results?

..............

But Perry’s office has threatened that a special session for SB 1811, starting as soon as tomorrow, could open the door for anything, including the only one of his emergency items that hasn’t passed: sanctuary cities. There are also cries from his allies at the Texas Public Policy Foundation for him to add the health care compact — Texas’ request of Washington to take control of Medicaid and Medicare — to the call.

But whether the governor has true presidential aspirations could play into what makes a call. Sources close to the governor say he’s more likely to narrow his scope for a special session for SB 1811 and finish it out within days, as opposed to dragging it out with high-drama measures.

If the call does include sanctuary cities, Sen. Juan "Chuy" Hinojosa, D-McAllen, the only Senate Democrat to vote for the budget, said all bets are off: "During a special session the governor is the one that controls the agenda and different rules apply, the two-thirds rule does not apply, so it will be very simple to pass any kind of legislation that the governor wants or that the Republicans want," he said.

There are also questions over whether the health care compact could be a political liability long-term, as voters across the country gather at town hall meetings to decry GOP efforts in Washington to overhaul Medicare, the federal health care program for the elderly.

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Texas : Revenge of Gov. Rick Perry against Democrat Texas Senator Wendy Davis : "Many expect that Perry would put the controversial sanctuary cities measure, which most Democrats despise, on the agenda for a special session"

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This guy may be considering the Republican Presidential Primary - Sen. Wendy Davis, D-Fort Worth, in a late-night filibuster stalled a critical piece of the Texas budget.

The Texas Tribune -
Legislature : 82nd Legislative Session -
Perry: "We Don't Come Here to be Show Horses" -
by Brandi Grissom -
May 30, 2011 -


Perry: "We Don't Come Here to be Show Horses"


Some excerpts :

The hunt is on, Gov. Rick Perry, said this morning for the four-fifths vote the Senate needs to prevent a special legislative session beginning bright-and-early at 8 a.m. tomorrow. "There's still some hours in front of us to get some work done," Perry said.

...............

If lawmakers in the Senate aren't able to marshal the four-fifths vote they need to bring up SB1811 again today and pass it, then the budget unravels — and Perry said a special session would start at 8 a.m. tomorrow. He said he hasn't decided yet which issues he would put on the agenda for a special session. But he noted that the governor is free to put any issue he or she sees fit on the list. Many expect that Perry would put the controversial sanctuary cities measure, which most Democrats despise, on the agenda for a special session.

"We work with a different set of rules during a special session, so that may be on Ms. Davis's mind," Perry said.

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POLITICO.COM : Obama's strength in Florida : Governor kicking out thousands of teachers - Unfulfilled Promises of driving out Hispanics - "Obama does as well among Hispanics as Rubio does" - "The most unknown governor we’ve ever had" says former Florida GOP Chairmnan

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The Failure of Anti-Immigrant Legislation in Florida, Chaos in Education - Governor Rick Scott : approval rating 29%, disapproval rating 57% - Rejecting Federal Money for Florida.


POLITICO.COM -
President Obama's secret weapon in Florida: Rick Scott -
By GLENN THRUSH & BYRON TAU -
May 30, 2011


President Obama's secret weapon in Florida: Rick Scott


Some excerpts :

Six months ago, in the wake of the wipe-out midterm elections, moderate Florida Sen. Bill Nelson privately vented that President Barack Obama, weighed down by his health reform effort and muddled messaging, was “toxic” for Democrats back home.

Yet Obama’s approval rating has surged from 42 percent to 51 percent in the last month, and Nelson is now openly embracing the president, pronouncing himself dutifully “fired up” at an Obama-hosted Miami fundraiser this spring.

...........

But Obama’s biggest asset in a critical swing state he won by a mere 2.8-percentage-point margin in 2008 might be Rick Scott, the wildly unpopular Republican governor Democrats are casting as Lex Luthor to Obama’s Clark Kent.

...............

“Obviously, it gets a lot tougher for us if they put someone like Rubio on the ticket,” said Scott Arceneaux, executive director of the Florida Democratic Party. “But Rick Scott is the standard-bearer for Republicans in Florida. … He wants to be President Obama’s foil in Florida, and we’re more than happy to let him be just that.”

...............

The governor has given Obama plenty to work with five short months after Scott eked out a 49 percent to 48 percent win over Democrat Alex Sink. He’s cut 10 percent of the state’s education budget, which could result in the sacking of thousands of teachers; the Republican supermajority in the state Legislature flatly rejected his attempt to ram through an Arizona-type immigration law and his rejection of federal high-speed rail funding has sparked criticism from many in his own party.

.................

Scott has picked fights with almost everybody: reporters, liberals, Republicans, but especially with the Obama administration, rejecting $2.4 billion for a high-speed rail link between Tampa and Orlando and $1 billion to implement the health reform law — all while positioning himself at the vanguard of the state-level anti-Obama movement.

................

Texas : anti-Immigration HB12 failed thanks to opposition that included police chiefs and sheriffs, faith leaders, business associations, Texas communities and civil and human rights activists across the state

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Hispanically Speaking News -
Arizona Style Immigration Bill Dies in Texas -
Saturday, May 28, 2011 -


Arizona Style Immigration Bill Dies in Texas


Some excerpts :

The victory over irrational legislation belongs to communities in El Paso, Dallas, Houston, Fort Worth, Austin, San Antonio, Texas Valley, West Texas and others. Texas can be proud of the efforts of their state-wide alliance and other advocacy groups such as the TRUST coalition. They all made the difference with civic actions, an energetic strategy and deep dedication to Texan values and rights.

Congratulations to those Senators who stood up for civil and human rights, community safety and economic security by blocking HB12. The twelve lawmakers who voted to block HB12 were Sens. Wendy Davis, Rodney Ellis, Mario Gallegos Jr., Juan “Chuy” Hinojosa , Eddie Lucio Jr., Jose Rodriguez, Carlos Uresti, Leticia Van De Putte, Kirk Watson, John Whitmire, Royce West and Judith Zaffirini. Their votes prove their commitment to Texans.

The failure of HB12 was inevitable considering the far-reaching opposition to it that included police chiefs and sheriffs, faith leaders, business associations, Texas communities and civil and human rights activists across the state.

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Why Sarah Palin is still a Fox News employee if she is going to run for President ?? - Roger Ailes should have talked to her and he knows that this weekend bus trip is just a ratings stunt.

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It does not become Fox News to have an employee running for President - It is not "Fair and Balanced" ....

Solution to this Enigma and Riddle : The top management of Fox News knows very well that Sarah Palin is not going to run .... It was the same story with Mike Huckabee. -- Roger Ailes, president of Fox News knows that she won't run.

There are no other options left - So by elimination, we know that Sarah does not run in the Presidential Race ... She is very content and happy making money with millions of her foolish followers.

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Video, John McCain : "Sarah Palin Can Beat Obama In 2012" : May 29, 2011 - This tells more about McCain than about Palin - I hope and pray that Palin runs ! - Lots of Fun !

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Can Ignorance and Foolishness rule the USA ?? - 

Yes, it once did ! -

John McCain: Sarah Palin Can Beat Obama In 2012 -
May 29, 2011 -

Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) suggested on Sunday morning that former Alaska governor Sarah Palin could defeat President Barack Obama should she run as the Republican presidential nominee in 2012.

"Of course she can," said the Arizona senator of Palin's chances in the hypothetical match-up on "Fox News Sunday." He added, however, that he doesn't know whether his 2008 running mate will ultimately decide to make a run for the White House.

McCain said, “I’ve never seen anyone as mercilessly and relentlessly attacked as I have seen Sarah Palin in the last couple of years.” According to The Hill, he added, “But she also inspires great passion, particularly among the Republican faithful."

Uploaded by jackohoft on May 29, 2011


John McCain added, "I've never seen anyone as mercilessly and relentlessly attacked as I have seen Sarah Palin in the last couple of years."

John McCain: Of Course, Sarah Palin Can Beat Obama

Republican Governors Scott and Kasich deeply unpopular in Florida and Ohio - Republican Governors have big negatives in Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa - See the poll numbers of the "best allies" of Obama in dangerous Swing States

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If Republicans lose Ohio and Florida, then it would be very difficult to win the Presidency in 2012. -

Fire Dog Lake -
Election 2012: The GOP’s Swing-State Governor Problem -
By: Jon Walker -
Friday May 27, 2011


Election 2012: The GOP’s Swing-State Governor Problem


Some excerpts :

In most of the countries biggest and important swing states (Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa) there are currently new Republican governors that have poor job approval numbers.

Florida Gov. Rick Scott: 29 approve – 57 disapprove (Quinnipiac 5/17-23)

Ohio Gov. John Kasich: 33 approve – 56 disapprove (PPP 5/19-22) 38 approve – 49 disapprove (Quinnipiac 5/10-16)

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker: 43 approve – 54 disapprove (PPP 5/19-22)

Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder: 32 total positive – 60 total negative (EPIC-MRA 4/27-5/3)

Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad: 41 approve – 45 disapprove (PPP 4/15-17)

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Politicus USA : "Scott Walker Causes Approval of Obama to Soar in Wisconsin" - Obama crushes each one of the current Republican Candidates by Big double digits, Wisconsin Polls. - More Possible Bad Republican Governors pushing Obama ahead

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Republican Governor Scott Walker is the best ally and propagandist of Obama in Wisconsin. -

"As we have seen in Florida and Ohio, the 2010 crop of unpopular Republican governors is doing serious damage to the GOP’s hopes of defeating Obama in 2012. The policies of John Kasich and Rick Scott have pushed Obama’s approval ratings higher in their states"

Politicus USA
Scott Walker Causes Approval of Obama to Soar in Wisconsin
By Jason Easley
May 27, 2011


Scott Walker Causes Approval of Obama to Soar in Wisconsin


Some excerpts :

In the potential head to head 2012 match ups, Obama leads Mitt Romney by 12 points, 51%-39%. The President leads Newt Gingrich by 18 points, 53%-35%, and he crushes Sarah Palin by 19 points, 55%-36%. Obama has expanded his lead over Romney by 2 points. His lead over Gingrich has grown by 6 points, and his lead over Palin is unchanged. Paul Ryan runs closest to Obama in state, and even he loses, 50%-43%.

Obama won Wisconsin in a blow out in 2008 and if voters were unsure about supporting Obama in 2012, the combination of Scott Walker’s leadership and a truly horrifying crop of Republican candidates has cleared up any doubts.

As we have seen in Florida and Ohio, the 2010 crop of unpopular Republican governors is doing serious damage to the GOP’s hopes of defeating Obama in 2012. The policies of John Kasich and Rick Scott have pushed Obama’s approval ratings higher in their states. While Wisconsin is losing some of its presidential swing state reputation, Scott Walker’s whipping up of a feverish animosity towards the GOP brand has virtually destroyed any chance the GOP has of winning the state in 2012.

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HuffPost : The Values Voters : Lots of Pastors and Evangelical Christians fired up by the Conservative Triumph in 2010. - Pre-Candidates Palin, Bachman, Pawlenty, Cain, Santorum will have to fight for the Legacy of Mike Huckabee

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It is as if Mike Huckabee died and they are relatives fighting for his assets - Mitt Romney being a Mormon is not attractive ( at the start of the race ) for this super traditional Americans. However Mitt Romney is the Front Runner and the Establishment Candidate in a Party that historically is very Hierarchical - No doubt that Romney has the Power of Money and Fundraising behind him. And he is more sane ( at least politically speaking ).



Huffington Post
Michele Bachmann Plans Presidential Announcement In Iowa
By BRIAN BAKST
May 26, 2011


Michele Bachmann Plans Presidential Announcement In Iowa


Some excerpts :

All are certain to play well with a GOP caucus electorate filled with Christian evangelicals who are emboldened by the clout they wielded in 2008 when they helped former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee win the caucuses.

...............

While in Iowa this week, Bachmann was due to hold private meetings with pastors, business leaders and elected officials. Sachtleben said it wasn't immediately clear which of the events would still occur. She was also planning to meet with supporters who have been building a network to facilitate a 2012 bid.

...................

But Palin isn't in the race, leaving Huckabee's network of supporters and donors in Iowa up for grabs. Bachmann has made no secret of her attempts to fill the void the Baptist minister left in the race, and suggested in interviews after he bowed out that she was more likely to run.

Bachmann aides say she would run a populist campaign much like Huckabee's, but with an asset he lacked: the ability to raise enough money to compete in states beyond Iowa if she were to win it. She's raised more than $2.5 million since she's been flirting with a White House bid.

...................

"There's certainly no way she's going to come into Iowa and sweep up the entire tea party movement. There's no way that's going to happen," said Charlie Gruschow, a founder of the Des Moines Tea Party. He's the Iowa state director for former pizza magnate Herman Cain's campaign, and said Texas Rep. Ron Paul also is attractive to tea party members.

Bachmann is certain to face competition for values voters from former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, both of whom are stressing their faith and records on issues such as opposition to abortion.

Scott Bailey, president of the Network of Iowa Christian Home Educators, said while Bachmann's experience with home-schooling her own children gives voters "an initial interest and makes them want to know more," the connection won't automatically translate into caucus support.

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POLITICO.COM : "MittRomney wins support from a wide swath of Republicans, pulling 16-18 percent regardless of whether their most important issues are government spending, the economy, national security or moral values. - Palin has even stronger support among Republicans who put a premium on moral values"

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According to this poll Tim Pawlenty is unknown or ignored by those Republicans polled :




POLITICO.COM -
Poll: Mitt Romney has broadest issue support -
By DAN HIRSCHHORN
May 26, 2011


Poll: Mitt Romney has broadest issue support


Some excerpts :

Mitt Romney is the candidate who'll be able to build a Republican coalition, but no one does better than Sarah Palin on connecting with GOP voters on social issues, according to a new Gallup poll.

Romney wins support from a wide swath of Republicans, pulling 16-18 percent regardless of whether their most important issues are government spending, the economy, national security or moral values. Palin has even stronger support among Republicans who put a premium on moral values — 23 percent of them back the former Alaska governor — but that's about the only segment of the electorate that picks her.

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POLITICO.COM : Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann as candidates : "there isn’t enough room for the two to occupy the same political space in 2012" - Collision of Two Crazy Trains - Jockeying for Power

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POLITICO.COM -
Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann size each other up -
By BEN SMITH & MAGGIE HABERMAN -
May 27, 2011 -


Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann size each other up



Some excerpts :

But despite – or perhaps because of – what they have in common, there are signs of tensions between the camps. And the iron-clad laws of politics suggest there isn’t enough room for the two powerful personalities to occupy the same political space in 2012.

...............

Already, their interests are coming into conflict as Palin makes moves designed to reclaim some of the media sparkle she’s ceded to Bachmann during the spring.

The timing of Palin’s announcement Thursday of a weekend bus tour up the East Coast overshadowed what appeared to be Bachmann’s final steps toward a presidential bid, a “moneybomb” raising $250,000 in a day and a planned speech in Iowa.

.............

But each camp views the other with a level of suspicion, with some of Palin’s supporters seeing Bachmann as a B-list version of their icon, and some in Bachmann’s camp regarding Palin as a short-timer without Bachmann’s record or tenure.

Palin “doesn’t seem like a credible candidate,” said Iowa state Senator Kent Sorenson, who will reportedly serve as Bachmann’s political director in the state. He said he thought Bachmann would beat Palin there head-to-head if need be. “She has not made any inroads at all to people in Iowa.”

...............

Bachmann’s flood of fundraising email this week, meanwhile, was met with irritation by the online supporters who compose Palin’s semi-official political operation.

“Way to win [people] over Michele. Bug the crap out of them at work,” wrote Stacy Drake, a blogger at Conservatives4Palin, hub of Palin’s online support.

“I’ve unsubscribed to your email list TWICE,” tweeted the founder of Palin Promotions, a grassroots support group, Martha Cano, adding, “#Notinterested.”

Prominent Republicans speculated Thursday that Palin’s bus tour timing is not unconnected to the Minnesota congresswoman’s efforts.

“Every time Bachmann gets some press, Palin will get herself out there a little more,” said one well-placed observer. “There’s a little jockeying going on.”

..................

However she’s going about it, Bachmann, is on track to launch an actual campaign – something that is far from clear with Palin, despite her sudden spurt of activity.

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New York Times : The new chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY) : "If Republicans didn’t get the hint in the special election in New York last night, they never will"

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Republicans are doubling down in their wish to diminish Medicare, Social Security and Health Care :

Gail Collins, Op-Ed columnist of New York Times :

 "We are going to spend the next 17 months hearing about how the Republicans want to kill off Medicare. By 2012, the current video on the Web showing a guy who resembles Representative Paul Ryan pushing an old woman off a cliff will look like a Teletubbies skit. By the fall, there will be ads showing the Republicans hacking their way through rows of bedridden seniors with scimitars."

The New York Times
Democratic Happy Dance
By Gail Collins, Op-Ed columnist 
May 25, 2011


Democratic Happy Dance


Some Excerpts :

So far, the Republicans are increasing their opponents’ Glad Bag of Happiness by sticking to their guns. Ryan, the House budget guru, was back on YouTube Wednesday with another defense of his Medicare plan and a cogent explanation of how the current health care system is all screwed up, rewarding doctors for the number of procedures they do rather than how well they treat their patients.

“Washington has not been honest with you,” Ryan told the camera. He is the powerful chairman of the House Budget Committee, and, therefore, you would think, Washington.

Meanwhile, in the Senate, Republicans were complaining about Democratic triumphalism. They had a point. How are we going to fix the hugely expensive, deeply flawed fee-for-service health care system with all this demagoguery?

“I don’t think it’s responsible to try to scare seniors for political points,” said Senator John Cornyn.

Cornyn, a Texas Republican, is the author of the Health Care Bureaucrats Elimination Act. That bill would kill off the part of the Obama health care law that is aimed at reforming the hugely expensive, deeply flawed fee-for-service health care system.

................

“They say the way to win the next election is to scare the daylights out of senior citizens. I think that’s irresponsible,” said Cornyn, who predicted, back in 2009, that the Democrats were going to turn Medicare into “a health care gulag.”

.................

Meanwhile, over in the House, videos were surfacing of a town hall meeting in which Rob Woodall, a Georgia Republican, argued health care with a Democratic activist who wanted to know what she was supposed to do without Medicare when her employer didn’t provide coverage for retirees.

“Hear yourself, ma’am. Hear yourself,” Woodall responded, rather triumphantly. “You want the government to take care of you because your employer decided not to take care of you. My question is: When do I decide I’m going to take care of me?”

Asked why he allowed the Congressional health care program to take care of him, Woodall responded, “because it’s free.”

Really, it’s hard to think of anything more the Democrats need to achieve total political bliss. Except maybe G.O.P. Presidential Nominee Newt Gingrich.

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VIDEO, Senators Patty Murray ( D-Washington ), Majority Leader Harry Reid ( D-Nevada ), Dick Durbin ( D-Illinois ) : Senate Rejects Republican Plan to Kill Medicare - Five Republicans joined all the Democrats in killing the measure proposed by Representative Paul Ryan ( Republican - Wisconsin )

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Republicans continue wasting the Time and Money of Congress in Absurd Bills that go nowhere - Great Squandering of Precious resources of Time and Money. The Republican House of Representatives has been a circus of Lazy Bums : Zero Laws.




Uploaded by SenateDemocrats on May 25, 2011


Senators Reid, Durbin and Murray speak after a vote rejecting Republican's budget proposal. The GOP plab would end Medicare and force seniors to pay more for benefits to finance tax breaks for billionaires and oil companies.

Senate Rejects Republican Plan to Kill Medicare

Representative Steve Israel, head of the House Democratic campaign committee : Democrats plan to target 97 Republican-held House districts that are more Democratic-friendly than the New York district lost by GOP. That includes 61 House Republicans in districts won by Obama in 2008

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The Paul Ryan Plan is a cliff for the Republicans to throw themselves off :


In the Senate vote on Wednesday, at least three of the 47 Republicans in the 100-member chamber were expected to join Democrats in rejecting it -- Senators Scott Brown, Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe.




Reuters.com
Republicans stick to plan to privatize Medicare
By Thomas Ferraro and Donna Smith
WASHINGTON | Wednesday, May 25, 2011


Republicans stick to plan to privatize Medicare


Some excerpts :

Dan Ripp of Bradley Woods, a private firm that tracks Congress for institutional investors, said Republicans are standing firm because "enough of them understand that the system is broken, and they see this as the best alternative."

It remains unclear, however, if the eventual 2012 Republican presidential nominee will embrace the Ryan plan. One Republican hopeful, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, called it radical but then, under fire, backed off his criticism.

Representative Steve Israel, head of the House Democratic campaign committee, mocked the Republican attempt to rally support for the plan.

"If Republicans want to double down on their effort to end Medicare to fund tax cuts for big oil, they do so at their own peril," Israel told Reuters.

Israel said Democrats plan to target 97 Republican-held House districts that are more Democratic-friendly than the New York district. That includes 61 House Republicans in districts won by Obama in 2008.

"I'm not saying we can win all of them, but I'm saying there are 97 Republicans who lost sleep last night," Israel said.

Israel fended off Republican criticism that Democrats refuse to even address Medicare's financial woes. The program faces increasing financial strains from rising healthcare costs and an aging baby boom generations.

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NYT's Nate Silver : The risk the Republicans took by voting almost unanimously for Mr. Paul Ryan’s budget, and the killing of Osama bin Laden, both play in favor of President Obama's reelection. - Add Kate Hochul's victory in New York. - Analysis

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Famous Pollster Nate Silver elaborates on Representative Elect Kate Hochul's victory in New York. Nate explains why this Democratic Party Victory can not be blamed on the third candidate Jack Davis. And he draws conclusions for the National Scene and the reelection of President Obama.

The New York Times
Five Thirty Eight
Six Months After Midterm Disaster, Hopeful Signs for Democrats
May 25, 2011


Six Months After Midterm Disaster, Hopeful Signs for Democrats


Some excerpts :

One can also take a more post-modern view toward special elections, like the one advocated by The Washington Post’s Jonathan Bernstein: special elections matter to the extent that people think they matter. We may get a better indication of how much Republicans think this one matters based on the way they vote when Mr. Ryan’s budget comes to a vote in the Senate, possibly later this week.

Republicans could try to toe the party line — there are solid reasons, both from a strategic standpoint, and from a morale standpoint, for them to do so. But that doesn’t necessarily make the problem go away: Democrats are all but certain to make a major issue of Medicare and Mr. Ryan’s budget in every competitive Congressional election next year.

Looking at the bigger picture, my view is that the two biggest wild cards so far this year have both broken in favor of the Democrats: one being the risk the Republicans took by voting almost unanimously for Mr. Ryan’s budget, and the other being the killing of Osama bin Laden. Even in an election that mostly comes down to the economy — President Obama and the Democrats, make no mistake, remain extremely vulnerable there — these could be important factors at the margins. Pick up an extra 1 percent of the vote here, an extra 2 percent of the vote there, and your strategy starts to look a lot more robust: maybe O.K.-but-not-good economic growth is enough to get the Democrats elected, in addition to good-but-not-great growth.

Coupled with what is arguably a troubling start for the Republicans in the presidential campaign — a couple of electable candidates aren’t running, while there are signs now that Sarah Palin may — the past six months have played out in a way that is toward the lower end of what the G.O.P. might reasonably have expected in November 2010.

That doesn’t mean there are any guarantees. Far from it: I don’t know that Mr. Obama is much more likely than a 2-to-1 favorite to retain the White House, nor that Democrats better than even money to take back the House. But both sets of odds have improved, in my view, from where I would have pegged them a few months ago.

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HuffPost : Mitt Romney : The one major candidate least acceptable to many Tea Party activists has emerged as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination - New polls show that Mitt Romney is the clear frontrunner

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Romney has spent the last months raising money and building an organization while most of his opponents have been just talking. And some of these Republican Candidates are counting on the support of Tea Party extremists that talk of how to disassemble Medicare and how to break up and take apart Social Security.

Huffington Post
Romney and the Decline of the Tea Party
By Lincoln Mitchell
Harriman Institute, Columbia University
May 25, 2011


Romney and the Decline of the Tea Party


Some excerpts

With Mitch Daniels confirming that he will not run for president, and new polls showing that Mitt Romney is the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination in 2012, there is a real possibility that the 2012 primary will be over before it really starts.

There is a small possibility that one of the candidates like Michele Bachmann or Newt Gingrich will galvanize the far right and make a race of it, and an even smaller possibility that a new candidate like Chris Christie will make a late entrance into the race and win the nomination, but with about eight months before the first vote is cast, Romney is increasingly likely to be the nominee.

................

We are all going to have to live without seeing Mike Huckabee, Gingrich, Palin, Ron Paul, Bachmann, Herman Cain and others compete for the nomination as these candidates have decided not to run or struggled to demonstrate their viability while Romney has begun to move away from the rest of the candidates.

Should Romney, as is increasingly likely, win the nomination, it will be a severe defeat for the Tea Party faction of the party. In order to become the party's leading candidate, Romney has had to move ahead of numerous Republican candidates with much more solid credentials with the activist wing of the Republican Party. Although Romney has sought to portray himself as a true conservative, his credentials in this area particularly on social and domestic issues simply do not compare to those of Bachmann, Huckabee, Palin and others. Romney is not a fundamentalist Christian, nor is he given to extremist and provocative statements like some of his opponents. Romney seems like a conservative from another generation primarily concerned with making his rich friends richer, rather than with taking radical positions on social policies. In this regard, he looks a bit like George H. W. Bush.

................

Romney, of course, has sought to present himself as a true conservative in order to secure the nomination. He began this towards the end of the 2008 primary campaign in which he finished second to John McCain, and has increased his efforts during the intervening years. These efforts have been sufficiently successful to win Romney support from many in his party, but he has failed to persuade many of the most radical in his party that he is conservative enough. However, this has not stopped him from emerging as the front runner for the Republican presidential nomination.

Two-and-a-half years into the administration of President Barack Obama, a president who has been attacked by the far right as a dangerous socialist, whose presidency stimulated a conservative revival, the likely candidate to oppose him in 2012 is a liberal Republican who as governor of Massachusetts passed a health care bill similar to the one Obama passed nationally in 2010, and who, until becoming a national figure, presented himself as a moderate business oriented Republican with a good understanding of the economy.

....................

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POLITICO.COM : "In a statement congratulating Kathy Hochul on her election, President Obama conspicuously refrained from mentioning Medicare or the Ryan budget, which he’s criticized in the past. Instead, Obama said that he and Hochul “both believe that we need to create jobs, grow our economy and reduce the deficit in order to out-compete other nations and win the future"

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"The idea that Democrats might have a shot at winning back the House is no longer a laughing matter" - "The chance that the GOP could lose 24 seats next year – and with them, control of the House — still seems remote. But unlike a few months ago, it no longer seems like an impossibility".

"Medicare wasn’t the sole issue behind Kathy Hochul’s upset victory in a New York special election Tuesday night, but strategists in both parties say it was an important force"

POLITICO.COM
Have Democrats cracked the code for 2012?
By ALEXANDER BURNS
May 25, 2011


Have Democrats cracked the code for 2012?


Some excerpts :

But after two years of getting pummeled over spending and the size of government, Democrats now appear to have found a political weapon that’s capable of evening out the fight: Medicare.

................

Yet Hochul wasn’t exactly fighting on even ground, either: Republicans hold a registration edge in the 26th District and John McCain won the area in 2008 by 6 percentage points. She also was outspent by the wealthy Corwin and Republican outside groups.

To Hochul supporters, there was no question what turned the tide of the campaign. At the Democrat’s election night celebration at a UAW hall in Amherst, an elated crowd chanted, “Medicare,” over and over again as Hochul declared victory.

“We had the issues on our side,” Hochul told her supporters, asking rhetorically: “Did we not have the right issues on our side?”

Hochul’s almost single-minded focus on entitlements — Democrat might just dub her the congresswoman from Medicare — accomplished a few key goals: It put her on the right side of seniors. It forced Corwin to fight the election on Democratic-friendly ground. Most of all, it gave Hochul a way of pushing back on the GOP’s popular fiscal conservative message — without losing the independent voters who loathe excessive government spending.

...................

Rather than defending the federal budget, writ large, Hochul cast the debate over spending entirely in terms of one of the most beloved major programs on the books.

By focusing on Medicare, Democrats say, Hochul and other candidates can make a larger argument about Republican priorities and what the GOP is willing to cut in Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan’s much-touted budget plan.

..................

“Republicans like to pretend that they are doing something noble, something fair — in the interest of asking all Americans to sacrifice,” said Alixandria Lapp, executive director of the pro-Democratic House Majority PAC, which invested heavily in the race. “They’re not asking oil and gas companies to sacrifice. They’re not asking multimillionaires to sacrifice. Medicare’s going to be a very important part of that overall message and a fundamental referendum for the 2012 election.”

Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown, a Democrat, told POLITICO that Hochul’s win “shows the Democratic message resonates with independents. I do think it changes the debate a bit.”

.....................

POLITICO.COM : "Some believe that Obama is doomed because the economy is bad. And they believe the presidency, therefore, will be dumped in the Republicans’ lap in 2012. They are kidding themselves. The Republicans are up against a real campaigner, and if they want his job, they are going to have to step their game way up and take it from him"

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POLITICO.COM
The Republican freak show
By Roger Simon - POLITICO’s chief political columnist.
May 24, 2011


The Republican freak show

Some excerpts :

Question: If Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty and Mitt Romney were on a sinking ship, who would be saved?

Answer: America.

.................

Two other Republicans might still declare for the nomination: Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann. If they ran as a ticket, they would be the most dynamic — and unpredictable — duo either party could offer. Forgive me if I would consider it a reporter’s dream ticket, but I would be the first in line for that campaign plane.

The Republicans who have decided not to run in 2012 have done so for a variety of reasons: personal, strategic, financial. But some have done so for one reason: They doubt any Republican can beat Obama in 2012, and they would rather wait for an open seat in 2016.

They may be wrong. At one point, George H.W. Bush looked unbeatable for reelection in 1992, but a dynamic, almost mesmerizing, campaigner, Clinton, beat him.

Who is the dynamic, almost mesmerizing, campaigner among the Republicans this time?

Well, that’s the problem. The Republicans often do not look for campaign skills when they choose a nominee. They are a party of hierarchy. “We typically look for the next person in line,” Tom Rath, a top Republican operative from New Hampshire, once told me. “We want to know: Whose turn is it?”

And if you look at the list of recent Republican nominees, you realize he is right: John McCain in 2008, George W. Bush in 2000 and Bob Dole in 1996 were all the next guys in line. They had “earned” their place in the party hierarchy. (Or, in the case of George W. Bush, his father had earned it for him.) Even Ronald Reagan lost the nomination to Gerald Ford in 1976, because Reagan was not the next guy in line. By 1980, Reagan was.

The reason the Republican race for the nomination appears chaotic is that there is no logical next guy (or woman) in line. Romney might come closest, but many question his conservative Republican bona fides.

...............

Is there a real nominee in this field? Someone who can win over the party in the primaries and the nation in the general?

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The Week : Bob Shrum - After reading this I begin to think in the possibility that Republicans can be heavily defeated in November 2012 and that their House of Representatives may be in danger of losing many GOP seats

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I am a fan of Bob Shrum and his article "Why Republicans can't find a decent presidential candidate" persuades me that the GOP has fallen in a pigsty - In November 2012 Americans won't  roll in the mud with Republicans.

The Week

Why Republicans can't find a decent presidential candidate

By Robert Shrum

The party's ideology is out of whack and nobody wants to lose to Barack Obama. Meanwhile, time is running out

May 23, 2011


Why Republicans can't find a decent presidential candidate



Some excerpts of a very long article :

None of the renunciators will reconsider. Bet on that – unless the economy craters or Obama nosedives. Even then, no late entry in modern times has prevailed in either party. There's too much money needed; there's too much Iowa to organize, too much New Hampshire to stroke; and there are too many careful calculations of long-term self interest. In any event, party rules make it impossible to barge into the primary process halfway through.

...........................

So who's left to jump into this shallow tank by mid-summer, or at the outer edge of practicality by mid-September?

Her sell-by-date may be passing, but the once and obvious entrant could be Sarah Palin. That cure would be worse than the illness. Ailes apparently, and rightly, has come to the conclusion that she's "stupid." She also seems to have her own case of Huckabee-ism. She quit the governorship of Alaska to cash in on John McCain's disastrous Hail Mary pass in picking her. It looks like she'd rather be raking in the dollar bills than appointing the secretary of the Treasury who signs them. But she's nothing if not quirky; inspired by the twilight of the midnight sun, she might suddenly tweet her way in. She's just not the savior the party's desperate are yearning for; instead she'd be a doomsday machine for the GOP.

Palin's delay, and if it holds her final forbearance, supposedly leaves room for Michele Bachmann, Minnesota congresswoman, Tea Party firebrand, and patriotic Mrs. Malaprop, who recently relocated the start of the American Revolution to Lexington and Concord, New Hampshire. She clones the Palin of Ailes' assessment; the more they encounter Bachmann, the more the vast majority of voters would rate her as equally unqualified. Few other than the most fervent think her nomination would result in anything other than a rout.

Then there's Paul Ryan, the Wisconsin congressman and one of Kristol's prime hopes, whose stunning proposal to dismantle Medicare has already put the House Republican majority in jeopardy; absent a redistricting process dominated by GOP governors and state legislatures, a Republican strategist says privately the House would already be gone. Ryan insists he won't run; Democrats wish he would. As the 2012 standard bearer, he could finish the job of defenestrating Congressional Republicans, resolutely moving down the road to defeat under an anti-Medicare banner that New Gingrich accurately denounced as "radical."

......................

Indeed from Jeb Bush to Mitch Daniels, the response tells us more than the call for new aspirants: They don't want to do this. There's not only the distemper and, for some, the dishonor of the process. They also anticipate that in the end, at high noon on Jan. 20, 2013, Barack Obama will raise his right arm and take the oath of office from a Chief Justice who will get the words right the second time around – and who will know that this reelected president will now be able to correct the reactionary bias of the Supreme Court.

For the GOP, 2011 will be the year of non-announcements and ideological make-overs. That leaves the party to pursue psychic satisfaction rather than the presidency.

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Wall Street Journal : "Today's Republican party is more populist and downscale than your father's GOP". - Tim Pawlenty is "Scott Walker with experience" and shows a grasp of tea-party-friendly populist economics - Scott Walker in Wisconsin is just doing some of the same things Pawlenty had already done in Minnesota.

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Wall Street Journal
Is America Ready for President TPaw ?
The TPaw moment has arrived.

By GERALD F. SEIB
MAY 23, 2011

Is America Ready for President TPaw ?


Some excerpts :

For the uninitiated, TPaw is Tim Pawlenty, recently departed governor of Minnesota and one Republican who's neither coy nor reticent about running for president. He formally launched his candidacy with a speech in Iowa Monday.

Some cynics—citing his relative anonymity and his, well, nonelectric personal style—will scoff. They shouldn't.

Few candidates have had as many things break right for them as has Mr. Pawlenty in the last three months. The shape of the Republican field, the departure of some potential rivals, the pace of the campaign and the emerging issue mix all have broken about as well for the 50-year-old Minnesotan as he could have hoped.

That doesn't mean Republicans are enraptured by him, or that he will succeed in taking advantage of this opening. His climb remains uphill. Still, he does have a golden chance to become the chief rival to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

He offers a good narrative for today's Republican party, which is more populist and downscale than your father's GOP.

..............

As governor he fought Democrats in a budget battle that led to a government shutdown, and battled public-employee unions in a long transit strike. As Stanley Kurtz wrote recently on National Review Online, he is "Scott Walker with experience," a reference to the new Wisconsin GOP governor, who recently caused a much bigger ruckus by doing some of the same things Mr. Pawlenty had already done in Minnesota.

As a former Catholic who has become an evangelical Christian, Mr. Pawlenty has bonds with the Christian conservatives so important in the early states of Iowa and South Carolina.

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"Internet fund-raising from small donors has become the way that insurgent candidates can wage asymmetrical political warfare. But in the early going, ideologically intense long-shots (Ron Paul and Michelle Bachmann) have far greater online appeal than establishmentarian play-it-safe contenders"

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"The New Republic" about Tim Pawlenty and his urgent need of money to run - Internet fund-raising does not seem the best option for him, he has to spend immense amount of time shaking hands at dinners.

Tim Pawlenty and John Huntsman will have to fly cross-country to woo wealthy donors in LA when they should be holding a town meeting in a high-school gym in Cedar Rapids. The pressure to raise $1.5 million a week to compete with Mitt Romney.

The New Republic
Tim Pawlenty's Cash Problem
The major flaw that could sink the former Minnesota governor’s presidential campaign
By Walter Shapiro
May 23, 2011


Tim Pawlenty's Cash Problem


Some excerpts :

And here lies Pawlenty’s problem: To run a competitive campaign, T-Paw will be forced to spend long hours each week ingratiating himself with wealthy donors in places like Houston and Atlanta. But in this cycle’s foreshortened campaign season, Pawlenty cannot afford to shirk even a minute of the face-to-face politics that have proven essential to winning the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. In other words, in a race where time will likely be of the essence, Pawlenty has dangerously little of it to go around.

....................

This means that Pawlenty has maybe six months to raise $40 million, which works out to be about $1.5 million (or 600 donors giving the maximum of $2,500) per week. Last week, Pawlenty held what probably will be his largest fund-raising event of the second quarter, raising $800,000 from home-state supporters (aka “low-hanging fruit”) in Minneapolis. To hit $40 million by December, Pawlenty has to have two fund-raising events on par with the Minneapolis rollout every single week.

What about the online political cash machine? Since the dramatic rise of Howard Dean in 2003, Internet fund-raising from small donors has become the way that insurgent candidates can wage asymmetrical political warfare. But in the early going, ideologically intense long-shots (Ron Paul and Michelle Bachmann) have far greater online appeal than establishmentarian play-it-safe contenders. If Pawlenty wins Iowa or somehow galvanizes conservatives with dramatic debate performances, then maybe he will be a click away from online riches. But that is a hope rather than a realistic strategy.

The only way that candidates like Pawlenty and Huntsman can reliably raise big bucks is through the most labor-intense form of old-fashioned fund-raising—putting high-roller donors in the same room with the candidate and cocktails and a catered dinner. With Pawlenty running neck-and-neck with the margin of error in most national polls, would-be T-Paw donors will be making a leap of faith rather than betting on a sure thing. That is why they need the handshake, the hand-on-the-shoulder conversation, and the autographed picture with Pawlenty to prove they were there (far) right from the start. Phone calls by Pawlenty from a van in Iowa are not enough—the candidate has to care enough to come to them.

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Republican time bomb : Rep. Paul Ryan’s proposed budget : As most House Republicans remained mute during a GOP meeting on the Ryan plan, House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Dave Camp (R-Mich.) rose and drily asserted : "People in my district like Medicare"

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Paul Ryan’s controversial measure was passed in a deceptively unified 235-193 vote, with only four House GOP dissenters.

House Republicans are wasting time and money with a Budget Proposal that will never become Law ( because the Democrat U. S. Senate will reject it ) - Prominent Republicans realize how stupid these Republican efforts are.

POLITICO.COM
Republicans ignored warnings on Paul Ryan plan
By GLENN THRUSH & JAKE SHERMAN
May 23, 2011


Republicans ignored warnings on Paul Ryan plan


Some excerpts :

It might be a political time bomb — that’s what GOP pollsters warned as House Republicans prepared for the April 15 vote on Rep. Paul Ryan’s proposed budget, with its plan to dramatically remake Medicare.

No matter how favorably pollsters with the Tarrance Group or other firms spun the bill in their pitch — casting it as the only path to saving the beloved health entitlement for seniors — the Ryan budget’s approval rating barely budged above the high 30s or its disapproval below 50 percent, according to a Republican operative familiar with the presentation.

The poll numbers on the plan were so toxic — nearly as bad as those of President Barack Obama’s health reform bill at the nadir of its unpopularity — that staffers with the National Republican Congressional Committee warned leadership, “You might not want to go there” in a series of tense pre-vote meetings.

But go there Republicans did, en masse and with rhetorical gusto — transforming the political landscape for 2012, giving Democrats a new shot at life and forcing the GOP to suddenly shift from offense to defense.

It’s been more than a month since Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and his lieutenant, Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va) boldly positioned their party as a beacon of fiscal responsibility — a move many have praised as principled, if risky. In the process, however, they raced through political red lights to pass Ryan’s controversial measure in a deceptively unified 235-193 vote, with only four GOP dissenters.

..................

At a fundraiser shortly after the vote, a frustrated Camp groused, “We shouldn’t have done it” and that he was “overridden,” according to a person in attendance.

A few days earlier, as most Republicans remained mute during a GOP conference meeting on the Ryan plan, Camp rose and drily asserted, “People in my district like Medicare,” one lawmaker, who is now having his own doubts about voting yes, told POLITICO.

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HuffPost : Fox News is trying to distance itself from the Tea Party movement -- which it heavily promoted in 2009 - Fox News Chief Roger Ailes wants the New Jersey Governor Chris Christie to run - Ailes dislikes Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck and Co.

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This information is Amazing !! ..... Sarah Palin has no chance of winning the Republican Primary if Fox News dislikes her :

Huffington Post
Fox News Chief Roger Ailes Thinks Sarah Palin Is 'Stupid': New York Magazine
By Michael Calderone
May 22, 2011


Fox News Chief Roger Ailes Thinks Sarah Palin Is 'Stupid': New York Magazine


Some excerpts :

NEW YORK -- Fox News still dominates the cable news ratings, but chairman Roger Ailes wants something more: to help elect the next president.

...............

nother GOP source told Sherman that "every single [Republican] candidate has consulted with Roger." However, Ailes isn't a big huge fan of any of them.

That's the takeaway from Gabriel Sherman's New York magazine cover story hitting newsstands Monday. Sherman, who's currently writing a book on Fox News for Random House, looks at how Ailes -- who built up a stable of possible presidential contenders after the 2008 election, including Sarah Palin -- isn't so pleased with their chances at beating President Barack Obama in 2012.

...................

Outside of running himself -- a somewhat ridiculous idea floated in October 2009 -- what's Ailes left to do if he wants to elect a Republican in 2012? Paging Chris Christie!

Sherman reports that Ailes called the New Jersey Governor a few months ago "and encouraged him to jump into the race." That's not the first time they've discussed the idea. Ailes brought Christie and talk show host Rush Limbaugh to his upstate New York home for dinner last summer. Despite Ailes' courtship, Christie isn't running.

In the piece, Sherman also provides a behind-the-scenes look at Ailes' split with Glenn Beck, network disputes over a Palin special, the 2009 feud with the White House, and how Fox News is trying to distance itself from the Tea Party movement -- which it heavily promoted in 2009 -- by now highlighting straight news stars like Bret Baier and Shepard Smith.

...............

So we'll see how Ailes responds now after a Republican close to him anonymously claims he and Chris Matthews may actually have the same opinion of Palin.

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POLITICO.com : Mitch Daniels OUT : "The GOP race is being shaped by who’s not running" - "The weakest Republican primary field in recent memory" - Beneficiaries of Daniels’s absence : Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman

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Intelligent and Wise Republicans ( there are some of them ! ) watch how the events unfold and want a "dark and hidden horse" to win the race.

Many GOP professionals with strong ties to the Bush family, are desperate making efforts to get Jeb Bush tu run, Jeb Bush is the former two-term governor of Florida, and was very successful in Education, budget control, etc ..... and he is moderate, rational and a great friend of Latinos, his wife is Mexican, but he is very reluctant and already said NO ! ...

Jeb Bush is the only Republican that is said to perhaps attract the Latino Vote. Who knows ?? ... I think that Republicans have reached the point of no return, and even a super star like Jeb Bush can not perform the magic.

Republicans, if you are wise, then reserve that wonderful candidate ( the Jeb ) for 2016, when you have had another four years of "weeping and gnashing of teeth"

POLITICO.com
With Mitch Daniels out, GOP looking for new 2012 option
By JONATHAN MARTIN
May 22, 2011


With Mitch Daniels out, GOP looking for new 2012 option


Some excerpts :

Mitch Daniels’s overnight decision against a presidential bid will immediately raise the volume on the low-hum grumbling among Republican insiders that they’re gearing up to face President Obama with the weakest primary field in recent memory.

The pressure on a handful of Republicans who’ve insisted they won’t consider running but would be potentially strong alternatives to Mitt Romney will now significantly intensify, but the ultimate beneficiaries of Daniels’s absence may be two candidates already on course to run: Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman.

At the moment, though, the Indiana governor’s exit illustrates the degree to which the GOP race is being shaped by who’s not running.

Consider the list of would-be candidates who’ve passed on a campaign in the last four months: Mike Pence, John Thune, Haley Barbour, Mike Huckabee, Donald Trump and now Daniels.

Add Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Paul Ryan and Rick Perry – Republicans with star power who’ve said flatly they won’t run – and it translates into a GOP establishment deeply worried that the flawed options they’re left with won’t be any match for an incumbent president who seemingly won’t face a primary but is likely to shatter campaign fundraising records.

“Insofar as politics abhors even a near-vacuum, others are bound to get in,” Weekly Standard editor William Kristol predicted this morning, suggesting a race that could “remain open and fluid until Thanksgiving.”

One Daniels friend and longtime Republican, who had already gotten dozens of emails by 7:30 bemoaning the news, was blunt when asked about who in the current field was now more appealing: “None of the above.”

In the near-term, Daniels’s exit means that Republican donors, operatives and elected officials aren’t likely to keep taking no for an answer and will surely attempt to convince one of the would-be candidates who’ve already rebuffed entreaties to reconsider.

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REUTERS Analysis : 12 dangerous Swing States that Obama won in 2008 by less than 15% : Nevada, Iowa, Colorado, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Indiana, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida

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Conservative states like North Carolina, Indiana and Virginia will be very difficult for Obama 2012 given the unemployment and economic situation. Traditional Rust Belt battlegrounds like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are crucial for re-election. They are not easy for Obama.

Nevada has the highest state unemployment rate at 11.9 percent. Florida and North Carolina have unemployment rates above 9 percent.

REUTERS.COM
Obama faces narrower path to 2012 re-election
By John Whitesides
Friday May 20, 2011 3


Obama faces narrower path to 2012 re-election


Some excerpts :

The Obama campaign has promised to push hard to compete in states like North Carolina and Virginia, where he was helped last time by a big voter turnout among blacks. In a sign of the commitment, the Democratic nominating convention will be held in Charlotte, North Carolina.

...............

In addition to the traditional big three battlegrounds -- Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida -- Nevada and Colorado will be critical to Obama's hopes.

Those two Western states and New Mexico are home to big Hispanic populations that Democrats hope will create a Western stronghold in 2012. Some Democrats hope to add Arizona to the mix.

..................

"No matter who is on their ticket, Republicans are going to have problems in 2012 with Latino voters," said Simon Rosenberg, head of the Democratic advocacy group NDN. Hispanics also could have an impact in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and be a factor in a few other states, he said.

................

The stubbornly high unemployment rate also will be vital to Obama's hopes, and several crucial 2012 battlegrounds have unemployment rates above the national average of 9 percent.

Nevada, where an influx of new residents and the growing Hispanic population propelled Obama to a 2008 win, has the highest state unemployment rate at 11.9 percent. Florida and North Carolina also have unemployment rates above 9 percent.

Simon Rosenberg ( NDN Hispanics ) said the political map would be heavily influenced by how the economy fares in the next 18 months.

"A year from now, if the economy is in good shape, Obama gets re-elected. If it's not, he doesn't. It's that simple," he said.

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VIDEO, Obama calls for the first time to begin negotiations for a Palestinian state based on Israel's pre-1967 borders and supports the Arab Spring. Call Obama anything, but do not call him a coward. My Psychoanalysis of Obama

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Many say Obama is the Antichrist, an undercover Muslim, a Manchurian Candidate, an Anti-White Racist, the destroyer of America with "Entitlements", a crazy spender, etc ... - I do not agree ....

Obama is not perfect, he has the defects of his qualities. People that are Professorial, Intellectual, Rational, Cerebral, Introverted may be also Idealistic and even Illusory or Delusional.

But Obama a Coward ??

No way, perhaps the best quality of the President is Courage, Bravery, Valor, Relentless Determination and Decision in the face of Perils and Dangers. He is no sissy or weakling to be pushed.

If he seems dithering or irresolute is because he is thinking carefully, he is not precipitate or rash, but he evaluates carefully all posisitions and decisions and leaves room to back in case of trouble.

And Obama is a long range and long term thinker, he is not immediatist. He plans for the long term future of America and the World.

This formidable guy Obama is not a man of Prejudices, being Half-Black Half-White has helped him to understand the supreme irrationality and stupidity of Prejudices and Ethnic Hatreds.

Obama Urges Israel to Go Back to 1967 Borders

VIDEO, Fox News, Carl Cameron - Fox News presents here the Republican Candidates as a bunch of crazies and crackpots .... Beware of the end of the World and Repent !

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This is strange : Fox News presenting the Republican Candidates in bad light - Can these crazies defeat the Professorial, Intellectual, Rational Obama ( the slayer of Dragon Osama Bin Laden ) ??


Uploaded by SubscribeForMoreNews on May 18, 2011

Race to Face Obama in 2012 [FOX: 5-18-2011]

National Journal : Evangelical Christians were 44% of GOP’s primary electorate in 2008 - Mitt Romney encountered strong resistance from them in 2008, because of being a Mormon - Front Runner Mitt Rommey is threatened by dislike of Evangelicals for him :

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Obama is attacking Mitt Romney, by praising Romney's Excellent Health Care in Massachusetts,  Shrewd Obama is creating big problems for this Front Runner and for the Republican Party, because Obama makes the Republican Primary more disputed and more contentious, lots of Republican blood. The Republican candidates will be forced to be more extremist, right wing and even racist in order to win the nomination, but that strategy of Racism and Extremism dooms the Republicans in the later General Election for President.

This is the most important paragraph of this article in the "National Journal" :

"So, Huckabee might have helped Romney by siphoning off the voters most skeptical of him—evangelical Christians—into a candidacy that ultimately was unlikely to succeed. Huckabee had the potential, Ayres notes, of denying to any other candidate “the voters Romney will find most difficult to get.” In the same way, Huckabee might have again dominated the Deep South primaries—where Romney faces the biggest hurdles—and thus taken them off the board for any other competitor".

National Journal
Romney’s Evangelical Problem
Challenged: Mitt Romney
Mike Huckabee’s exit from the race makes it more imperative for Mitt Romney to increase his appeal among evangelicals.

By Ronald Brownstein
May 20, 2011


Romney’s Evangelical Problem



Some excerpts :

Romney has encountered two levels of resistance from evangelicals: doubts that he is truly committed to conservative positions on social issues such as abortion, and theological tension over his Mormon religion. That latter problem was especially pronounced in the South, where Southern Baptists and Pentecostals, two groups particularly leery of Mormonism, make up at least two-thirds of Republican evangelicals, notes John C. Green, a political scientist at the University of Akron who is an expert on religion and politics. Class issues compound Romney’s challenge. Polls suggest that his smooth, boardroom manner plays better among college-educated than noncollege Republicans, and in many places evangelicals tilt toward the latter. (See “Populists Versus Managers,” NJ, 12/18/10, p. 16.)

Evangelicals constituted 44 percent of GOP presidential primary voters in 2008.

Romney’s weakness with evangelicals, somewhat counterintuitively, explains why he might have benefited had Huckabee entered the race. In 2008, Huckabee won either a plurality or a majority of evangelicals in 15 of the 29 states with exit polls, including virtually every Southern state. Huckabee’s appeal to Southern evangelicals was so powerful that he won five states in Dixie after his late-January defeat in South Carolina essentially guaranteed that he would not capture the nomination.

But Huckabee showed extremely limited appeal beyond that community. In 15 states last time, he attracted no more than single-digit support among non-evangelical voters. Unless Huckabee could have radically extended his reach in 2012, that profile suggests that he would have had enough of a floor to threaten Romney but probably too low a ceiling to beat him.

...................

Now, those evangelical voters and Southern states are in play again and are a potentially bigger risk to Romney if they support a candidate with a greater chance than Huckabee of incorporating them into a broader coalition. “The reaction of a lot of people is that Huckabee being out is good for Romney,” Green says. “But, strategically, it might create a more serious problem for him.”

Almost all GOP analysts agree that Huckabee’s departure increases the odds that evangelical voters will fragment early on, especially in Iowa, whose caucuses will kick off the Republican race. But if the contest eventually reduces to Romney and one rival—either in the South Carolina primary or immediately after it—Huckabee’s exit increases the possibility that evangelicals will unify against Romney, unless he can expand his appeal with them.

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TIME.COM : When Obama joked in El Paso Texas that Republicans would soon demand a border moat filled with alligators, instantly Twitter exploded with messages, people sending the quote to friends, signaling a messaging victory

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TIME.COM -
White House Memo -
Can They Win, One Tweet at a Time? -
By Michael Scherer -
Thursday, May 19, 2011


Can They Win, One Tweet at a Time?



Some excerpts :

When Barack Obama traveled to Texas this month to talk immigration, David Plouffe, his top message guru, decided to stay home and watch Twitter instead. While Obama spoke, Plouffe sat before two flat-screen televisions in the White House complex. One showed live footage of Obama in El Paso. The other flickered with a lightning-quick vertical ticker tape of people tweeting with the #immigration hashtag, reacting line by line to the President in real time. "I find it useful," Plouffe says, "to see what's penetrating."

When Obama went off script to joke that Republicans would soon demand a border moat filled with alligators, a blur of Twitter messages showed people sending the quote to friends and followers, signaling a messaging victory of sorts. "It's kind of the next evolution," Plouffe explains. "Remember back in 2008, you'd have the presidential debate, and then most of the networks would have some sort of dial going up and down. That seems very Jurassic Park–like compared to this."

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Plouffe, who served as Obama's 2008 campaign manager, is an engineer, more interested in data, numbers and quantifiable metrics than in storytelling. He uses the word cume as a verb — meaning "to build up a cumulative audience" — and describes other people as "influence hubs."

From the moment he arrived in January, Plouffe changed the way the White House unfolds each morning. He demanded far more precision and repetition in the language used by the President and his surrogates. ("Win the future," ad nauseam.) He sought greater outreach to state and local media outlets. (West Wing aides now get news summaries from regional papers and local 6 o'clock news broadcasts, not just national publications.) And he doubled down on efforts by the White House to use social media to spread its message.

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