The key constituencies to watch for 2012 : Republicans : senior citizens and white working-class voters - Democrats : Young Voters, Minorities, Working Women and Educated Voters in Urban Areas. Psychoanalysis of America.

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America for Election is Divided according to "Cultural Wars", age is a very important factor in the U.S.. Old age skews people to the Republican Party ( "Give us America back" ), Youngsters are more "Revolutionary", more "Experimental" and vote for the Democratic Party, they want a "New World", a more "Sexy, Hot and Cool World", less ruled by Dogmatic Religion.

Contrary to most countries Women in America vote for the Party that best guarantees their rights : The Democratic Party. This is hard to understand for Foreigners, because in their countries Women are more Ignorant and Reactionary, that is more conservative.

In 2010 the key constituencies of the Republican Party had Great Turnout to give a Big Victory to the Republican Party that grabbed the U. S. House of Representatives.

The Democratic Party failed to fire up its constituencies, they did not show up for voting and Obama and his Party's Candidates lost the midterm election 2010.

The Republican Party is making some grave mistakes : constantly attacking the Middle Class, the Poor ( with Budget Cuts directed against them ), a Big Republican campaign against Latinos using State Laws in some Reactionary, Retrograde and Backward States, and a horrible attack on the Rights of Women, Reproductive Rights like planning birth control and abortion. American Youngsters feel little sympathy for this bigotry against Ethnics and against a Gender.

But will that suffice to push Minorities and Working Women to the Voting Booth ??.

More Demography : besides what we have said, Children, Adolescents and Youth have a higher proportion of Minorities than Old Folks. An enormous difference in color, ethnics and race composition.

On the other hand, the jobless rate is still very high at 9.1 and this phenomenon punishes Youngsters with more strength. This Economic Fatigue plays against Obama and the Democrats and favors the aspirations of Republicans.

Diminish Unemployment to a 7% or lower in November 2012 and Obama is automatically reelected.

Obama is a Great and very Strong Personality and a Very Brave and Resilient Man, he is a superb campaigner, but can Americans forgive a high jobless rate ??

Americans are highly practical and pragmatic, that is the problem. The USA is not Venezuela or Libya, countries where a Great Odd and Whimsical Personality can gather a lot of support from ignorant masses.

And Americans have never been prone to elect the best intellectual among two guys. Great Intellects of the past have been defeated by lesser men in Presidentials.

I say this because Obama is a Great Scholar of Law, and a man that understands very well many nuances of the Foreign Nations. Obama is an Intellectual and Global President.

And Today's Republican Candidates seem like dwarfs before him ( intellectually speaking )

But I am sad to say that Intellectuality and Knowledge of Foreign Matters do not decide American Presidential Elections.

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Vicente Duque

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