Google and Associated Press -
Obama wants big 2012 campaign map, GOP wants small -
By CHARLES BABINGTON, Associated Press
June 20, 2011
Obama wants big 2012 campaign map, GOP wants small
Some excerpts :
Top Democrats say it's unlikely that Obama will lose Pennsylvania, which always draws huge attention but has voted Democratic in the last five presidential elections.
Privately, those close to Obama worry more about Ohio, which has 18 electoral votes. Its unemployment rate, 8.6 percent, is slightly below the national average. But its population growth is almost flat, and it doesn't have the large numbers of unregistered minorities and young adults that the Obama campaign is targeting in other states.
No Republican has been elected president without carrying Ohio.
Of the nine targeted states that Kerry lost, Obama needs to hold only Ohio and one small state — say, Nevada or Iowa — to win re-election, assuming the other states vote the same as in 2008.
Florida, with 29 electoral votes, is even more vital.
If Obama holds no other state but Florida among the top-tier nine, he wins a second term.
Aubrey Jewett, a University of Central Florida political scientist, said the Sunshine State seems destined to play its toss-up role again.
"The economy is still not doing well here," Jewett said, "and Obama is not very popular." But Scott, the new Republican governor, "is extremely unpopular right now," he said, and that could undo the GOP presidential nominee in a razor-thin race.
Finally, several plausible map scenarios would leave the 2012 presidential nominees in a 269-269 electoral tie. That would hand the decision to the U.S. House, where Republicans expect to hold their majority even if they suffer some losses.
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