REUTERS Analysis : 12 dangerous Swing States that Obama won in 2008 by less than 15% : Nevada, Iowa, Colorado, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Indiana, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida

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Conservative states like North Carolina, Indiana and Virginia will be very difficult for Obama 2012 given the unemployment and economic situation. Traditional Rust Belt battlegrounds like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are crucial for re-election. They are not easy for Obama.

Nevada has the highest state unemployment rate at 11.9 percent. Florida and North Carolina have unemployment rates above 9 percent.

REUTERS.COM
Obama faces narrower path to 2012 re-election
By John Whitesides
Friday May 20, 2011 3


Obama faces narrower path to 2012 re-election


Some excerpts :

The Obama campaign has promised to push hard to compete in states like North Carolina and Virginia, where he was helped last time by a big voter turnout among blacks. In a sign of the commitment, the Democratic nominating convention will be held in Charlotte, North Carolina.

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In addition to the traditional big three battlegrounds -- Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida -- Nevada and Colorado will be critical to Obama's hopes.

Those two Western states and New Mexico are home to big Hispanic populations that Democrats hope will create a Western stronghold in 2012. Some Democrats hope to add Arizona to the mix.

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"No matter who is on their ticket, Republicans are going to have problems in 2012 with Latino voters," said Simon Rosenberg, head of the Democratic advocacy group NDN. Hispanics also could have an impact in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and be a factor in a few other states, he said.

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The stubbornly high unemployment rate also will be vital to Obama's hopes, and several crucial 2012 battlegrounds have unemployment rates above the national average of 9 percent.

Nevada, where an influx of new residents and the growing Hispanic population propelled Obama to a 2008 win, has the highest state unemployment rate at 11.9 percent. Florida and North Carolina also have unemployment rates above 9 percent.

Simon Rosenberg ( NDN Hispanics ) said the political map would be heavily influenced by how the economy fares in the next 18 months.

"A year from now, if the economy is in good shape, Obama gets re-elected. If it's not, he doesn't. It's that simple," he said.

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