"Not all independents are the same, and the real showdown for 2012 is over who will win the Obama independents. If President Obama woos the vast majority of them back, he can be re-elected".
USA Today
Can Obama win independent voters in 2012 ?
By Aamer Madhani,
February 06, 2012
Can Obama win independent voters in 2012 ?
Some excerpts :
Here are some of their findings that were based on a deep dive into exit polling from 2008 and 2010 by Diggles and Erickson:
Self-described independents who voted for Obama in 2008 were more worried about the national economy in 2008 than independent voters who backed the Republican presidential nominee, Sen. John McCain. Exit polls show 55% of Obama independents said they were very worried compared with 44% of McCain Independents.
Independents who voted for Obama appear more representative of "swing voters" than independents who voted for McCain. About 25% of Obama independents voted for a Republican for the House in the 2010 midterm elections, while only 10% of McCain independents voted for a Democratic House candidate. The independent coalition that Obama won in 2008 was a complex bunch -- nearly half backed Sen. John Kerry in 2004, 31% voted for George W. Bush or someone else, and 17% didn't vote.
Independents who voted for Obama are younger, more racially diverse, less religious and skew female. One interesting tidbit from exit polling: Obama's independent backers are less religious than the more liberal Democratic voters who backed Obama in 2008. Thirty percent of Obama independents said they attended services weekly or more, compared with 35% of Democrats who say they regularly attend religious services.
"Blending all independents muddies the water and doesn't present a clear picture of who the true swing voters really are, they believe, and campaign strategies aimed generally at independents will waste lots of money and time," Diggles and Erickson conclude. "Obama independents are a unique, more moderate breed."
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