"As governor of Massachusetts, Romney was to the left of Obama on many of 2012's potential hot button issues" .... Will Republicans trust Mitt Romney ??
POLITICO.COM
"The Arena" Forum
Is Rick Santorum ready to play ball?
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
Is Rick Santorum ready to play ball ?
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Ex-Rep. Artur Davis Former congressman (D-Ala.); fellow, Harvard Kennedy School's Institute of Politics :
Santorum's sweep underscores how thin Romney's foundation has been in the last two months: he has won the one state in the Republican universe where 25 percent of the primary voters supported Obama in 2008 (New Hampshire); the state outside Utah that has the largest number of Mormons in the country (Nevada), and a state that turned into a de facto referendum on Newt Gingrich (Florida).
I've said before that Santorum is the one Republican driving a message about upward mobility and middle class anxiety, and the candidate with the best chance of consolidating the gains Republicans made in 2010 with white working class voters. That message, if he can fund it, could win Ohio and Michigan in the next month, and push Romney to third place in the five southern states on March 6 and March 13 .Much stranger things have already happened this cycle.
Corey Ealons
Corey Ealons VOX Global; former Obama White House communications advisor :
The Santorum Surge is more proof that the battle for the soul of the GOP is up for grabs between the establishment and the more conservative wing of the party. The only way Mitt Romney has been able to beat back conservatives is by spending record amounts of money on negative ads in Florida, and at this point Rick Santorum has won more states than the “eventual nominee.”
At this point in the campaign, considering the amount of attention given over the past year, support should be growing organically for the frontrunner as voters embrace the message offered by the campaign and the persona of the candidate. There is no groundswell for Romney, no appreciation for his message and no sense of who he really is. TIME magazine’s cover last year asked the question of Romney, “Why don’t they like me?” says it all. Right now, Romney should have a solid message and strong momentum, and he has neither. Santorum, Gingrich and Paul are right to stay in the race.
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David Boaz
David Boaz Executive VP, Cato Institute :
Last night was a reminder that Republicans just haven't rallied to Mitt Romney.
I imagine that Romney strategy meetings are a lot like the legendary meeting at the dog food company: Various vice presidents say that our dog food has the best ingredients, the best advertising, the best distribution system, so why isn't it selling? And finally an intern blurts out, "The dogs don't like it!" Romney's resume, money, and six years of campaigning just haven't made Republicans like him.
Newt Gingrich is on the ropes now. He may go all the way to the convention, as he says he will and as Ron Paul seems likely to do. But Paul is running on a set of ideas. What's Gingrich's motivation? People are going to start to wonder. It seems likely that Santorum will now emerge as the conservative alternative to Romney. But eventually Republicans will grudgingly concede that they can't really see any current candidate other than Romney taking on Obama.
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Krystal Ball
Krystal Ball MSNBC Contributor and Democratic Strategist :
Mitt Romney’s success thus far in the GOP primary has been driven by one thing : voters see him as their best chance to beat Barack Obama in the fall.
In the single contest that Newt Gingrich won, his success owed largely to the fact that a combination of Newt’s masterful debate performances and his attacks on Mitt’s time at Bain Capital undercut Mitt’s electability argument. When Newt briefly led in the polls in Florida, he was matching Mitt on the question of who was most electable. By the day of the actual primary, Mitt was destroying him on electability. 45 percent of Florida primary voters said that the ability to beat Obama was the most important candidate trait and among those voters, Romney bested Newt by a margin of 25 points.
For Gov. Romney, what’s really troubling about Santorum’s wins last night is that they again undercut his argument of electability. How can Romney be the most electable when he utterly fails to either excite the base or appeal to the working class swing state voters who will likely determine the general election victor?
Looking forward, Romney’s got to be very very nervous about Michigan. There is no way for him to downplay expectations in the state where his Dad was governor. Yet between Romney’s unfortunately titled op-ed “Let Detroit go Bankrupt” and the fact that Michigan is made up of exactly the sort of blue-collar voters who have been least impressed with Romney, Michigan could prove to be very tough sledding for him.
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David N. Bossie
David N. Bossie President of Citizens United :
Rick Santorum had a great night last night that can’t be overlooked in the weeks ahead. Mitt Romney on the other hand had a terrible night because he can’t win over conservative voters or prevail in any states unless he spends millions on negative television ads. The conservative movement is not based on poll tested policies but a core set of principles. Mitt Romney lacks those core conservative principles, and conservative primary voters are rejecting him because of it. They have chosen the conservative candidate five times out of eight during this primary season. The fact of the matter is Mitt Romney is not a conservative and the voters know it.
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Gloria Feldt
Gloria Feldt Author of "No Excuses" and former Planned Parenthood CEO :
Since neither Romney nor Gingrich appears to have any real convictions, each is trying to out-conservative the other.
Ideologues hate insincerity, and the party's controlling extreme right-wing base knows Santorum is sincere in his extremism. But it really doesn't matter whether the party's nominee for president is Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, or some yet unnamed person. They're all beholden to the rabid right leviathan that they know will devour them if they deviate from its economic or social agenda. And whichever of these candidates ends up being the party's standard bearer, it spells disaster for women, and the fictional Handmaid's Tale will become reality.
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Ed Espinoza
Ed Espinoza Western states Democratic consultant; former DNC official :
Santorum's trifecta of wins on Tuesday demonstrate that the Republican base is not - and never really has been - satisfied with the crop of candidates running. Romney's platform is basically the "not Obama" plan and that's just not enough.
An insurgent Rick Santorum proves that voters are more likely to support a candidate who stands for things rather than just stands against things - without any regard as to how much overall appeal the candidate has.
This primary process has crumbled apart, but maybe Republicans can salvage it with a brokered convention this summer.
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Natalie (Talia) Stroud
Natalie (Talia) Stroud Assistant Professor, University of Texas :
Today’s question is whether Romney and Gingrich should be worried about serious competition from Santorum. The way in which the media frame an event can affect how citizens process the event. To answer this question, therefore, I turned to the media.
The CNN headline is “Santorum Claims Momentum”; Fox News says “Santorum’s Sweep Shakes Up Race”; MSNBC “GOP race thrown wide open as Santorum wins in three states”; The New York Times “Santorum Upsets G.O.P. Race With Three Victories”; and the Wall Street Journal “Santorum Delivers a Republican Stunner”. Several of the articles tally the primary season wins for each candidate - giving Santorum four to Romney’s three and Gingrich’s one. Yet these wins arguably are not equal strides in the race for the Republican nomination. Few articles dwell on the complicated process by which Missouri, Minnesota, and Colorado actually select delegates. If research on media framing is any guide, I’d say that Romney and Gingrich should be taking Santorum seriously.
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Christine Pelosi
Christine Pelosi Attorney, author and Democratic activist :
The Republican race to challenge President Obama is far from over but still Mitt Romney's race to lose.
Yes, he dropped off from 2008 wins but one could argue that many Romney 2008 voters were anti-McCain and the Santorum 2012 voters are anti-Romney - a sign that voters already know who the nominee is but want to vote with their hearts in the primaries and their heads in November. Instead of attacking Rick Santorum - who will engage on conservative populism, caring about the poor and Bain's vampire capitalism - Mitt Romney should message positively to close the enthusiasm gap. Had John McCain done so in 2008, he would not have needed Sarah Palin as a last-ditch high-stakes game changer.
To begin, stop saying that caucuses "don't count" because they don't yield delegates, let's get real: everything counts in politics. Where there's a vote, leaders want to win. Team Romney should take a lesson from the 2008 Democratic presidential primary contests in Michigan, Florida and Puerto Rico: when real live voters show up they believe that they count whether or not their vote actually manifests in delegates. Telling them otherwise is foolish and may be costly in November: as the old saying goes "if you don't respect us, don't expect us."
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Patrick Dorinson
Patrick Dorinson Commentator, host of the radio talk show “The Cowboy Libertarian” :
I have seen this movie before. For me here in California, Romney’s campaign is eerily similar to the campaign of another business person running on the theme of managerial experience in the private sector - Meg Whitman. She too had high priced consultants and lots of money for ads but she lost to a skilled and crafty professional politician in Jerry Brown. Like Whitman, Romney seems to have absolutely no political acumen and he sometimes sounds like a game show host. Santorum connects with real folks because he is one of them. He speaks to what’s in his heart and it comes through. Romney speaks from his talking points and it doesn’t come through at all.
Is Romney in trouble? Temporarily perhaps, but in the end money and with the support of the country club Republican establishment Romney will probably be the nominee.
However if Romney is the nominee and loses to Obama in November, Ann Coulter will have a hard time selling any more books to conservatives.”
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Andra Gillespie
Andra Gillespie Professor of Political Science, Emory University :
Last night’s results definitely remind us of the difficulty of predicting the course of this primary season. Rick Santorum had a great night last night, and his wins in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado vindicate his decision to stay in this race.
If nothing else, Santorum’s wins isolate Newt Gingrich and undermine his claim that he is the designated alternative to Mitt Romney. Santorum performed strongly in states where Newt Gingrich was on the ballot and in states where he was not on the ballot. Gingrich will likely stay in the race (in equal parts to satisfy his ego, to keep his promise to stay in the race, and to see if he can win another Southern state) but Santorum’s strong performance last night probably marks the beginning of the end of Gingrich’s relevance in this contest.
Santorum’s strong showing also puts Mitt Romney on notice. He won’t win the Republican nomination without a fight. Romney has a lot to learn from his performance this past week. While his campaign was distracted by allegations that he lacks empathy for the poor, Santorum plugged ahead and did the requisite retail politicking. And as an unquestioned conservative, Santorum was well positioned to take advantage of the outrage over the Obama administration’s showdown with the Catholic Church over birth control.
In some ways, Romney’s losses are an artifact of the primary season: candidates win some, and they lose some. Romney’s defeats, though, also amplify his weaknesses. While some Republican voters will always harbor latent suspicions about him, Romney must redouble his efforts to address concerns that many voters still have about him. From unconscious prejudices about his faith to concerns about flip flopping to a populist backlash over how Romney made his money, he must address these issues in a non-defensive tone. If he doesn’t respond to these concerns head-on, it could seriously damage his candidacy.
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Mark Mellman
Mark Mellman Democratic pollster :
Santorum is back, but it’s more a cry of pain from the GOP base than a bang. Last night reinforces five lessons we leaned a while ago:
Iowa and New Hampshire count a lot. Santorum wouldn’t be winning anywhere absent his showing in Iowa. Mitt Romney wouldn’t be winning anywhere absent his win in New Hampshire and his close second in Iowa.
Gingrich’s single victory was an aberration. It may happen again somewhere outside of his home state, but it will be rare.
GOP voters don’t trust Romney and with good reason.
Romney is an incredibly weak frontrunner, having not gotten near 50 percent except among his coreligionists anywhere.
The more general election voters see Romney, the less they like him His unfavorables are skyrocketing and he is falling behind Obama in state after state - Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire to name three key recent examples.
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Garry South
Garry South Democratic consultant, The Garry South Group :
Santorum's trifecta yesterday is stunning, particularly the strong win in Colorado, which Romney won with more than 60 percent four years ago, but also Romney's third-place finish in Minnesota, which he also won in 2008.
But the surges of all of the various other candidates - Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich and now Santorum - have always been more about Romney than about them. They represent a collective gag reflex among Republican base voters over the establishment's attempt to ram Romney down their throat. Romney is a walking monument to insincerity and disingenuousness, and his many self-inflicted verbal wounds over the primary season have finally started to worry Republicans. His campaign itself is well-funded and well-run, but Romney himself is a basically tone-deaf klutz of a politician. The GOP will nominate Romney at its own risk - but be my guest.
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James J. Zogby
James J. Zogby President, Arab American Institute :
Only those who underestimated the strength of the GOP's "anybody but Mitt" sentiment were surprised by Santorum's wins.
After a series of "anybodys", now Rick is "it". Romney should see the writing on the wall. Even if he wins, he does so without a big chunk of the GOP base. Gingrich had his day. He may get another. But he won't win.
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Christian Grose
Christian Grose Political Science Professor, University of Southern California :
Santorum's wins in Minnesota and Colorado are huge boosts to his momentum, and Romney should be worried. Especially the win in Colorado - what a surprise! Santorum is now tied with Romney in terms of the number of first-place wins in states (both have won three if we don't count the Missouri non-binding primary).
However, Romney still maintains some structural advantages. Other than Maine, the next votes aren't for 20 more days, which will give time for (1) Santorum's momentum to slow down; and (2) Romney to get back on his game. Romney has the funds to battle in Super Tuesday and big states. Also, Romney has won in the only winner-take-all state so far, Florida, which gives him a delegate lead that could become important as we go forward.
Gingrich did not do well last night, but Santorum's wins allow Gingrich to focus on winning in southern states on Super Tuesday instead of the narrative of February being all about Romney.
Romney may still be the front runner, but Santorum's three-way win last night made it a little bit tougher for Romney and a bit more unpredictable for what happens with Gingrich.
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Thomas E. Fiedler
Thomas E. Fiedler Dean, Boston University College of Communication :
Winning in Minnesota and Missouri, and possibly in Colorado, hardly qualifies Santorum as being “back with a bang.” More like a “pop” and eventually to be a whimper. There was little-to-no incentive for Republican voters to participate in either Minnesota or Missouri, so very few did. And Coloradans showed their increasingly Democratic leanings by essentially ignoring the contestants and the contest.
What these results do underscore is the general discomfort by values-voting Republicans with Romney, probably for ideological and religious reasons. And it means that the GOP race will continue to lurch along for several more weeks without clarity - which is to the benefit of President Obama who can keep his powder dry and concentrate on his presidential agenda.
As for Gingrich, who has now dropped below Santorum as the apparent Romney rival, he will continue to stew in his own toxic juices awaiting Super Tuesday when he is quite certain - as only he and Callista can be - that the Republican electorate will rise as one to declare him the Messiah.
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Jonathan Prince
Jonathan Prince Democratic consultant and former State Department official :
Mitt Romney has GOT to be worried - at every moment when it looks like Mitt has got the nomination wrapped up, voters have slapped him down with a resounding "not so fast." He is now behind in actual victories and probably soon to be behind in those national polls that everyone loves to talk about.
And while they don't mean all that much on the ground, they do mean something on the airwaves where pundits chatter. And anything that further strips away his aura of inevitability is dangerous for Romney at this point. As for Newt, he shouldn't be worried about Santorum, he should just thank the voters for his second serving of 15 minutes and exit stage, uh, right.
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Douglas Koopman
Douglas Koopman Political Science Professor, Calvin College :
February may be "faith month" in the GOP presidential nomination contest. If it is, look for Santorum to surge.
The Obama administration's tone-deaf decision on health insurance coverage, the Komen-Planned Parenthood flap, and the 9th Federal Circuit decision on California's gay marriage ban have Republican voters now thinking more of cultural issues. In addition, the surprisingly strong uptick in economic news makes it likely that, to be credible, the Republican standard-bearer must be someone who can campaign in the fall with credibility on cultural as well as economic turf.
Of the current candidates, only Santorum can do that. Romney still has a problem connecting, Newt's cultural positions are compromised by his own behavior, and Ron Paul is really a libertarian. Santorum may wear his faith on his sleeve too much for the mainstream media and even some of the Republican establishment, but he's "the real deal" and connects well with Republican primary voters. If he can use the interlude between Tuesday's trifecta and Super Tuesday to hone and hammer his message, he could at least remake the two-man race into Romney versus Santorum. He'll need to fundraise well and probably give Romney a black eye by beating expectations in either Arizona or Michigan February 28. But many stranger things have already happened in this wild Republican race.
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Michael Parkin
Michael Parkin Assistant Professor of Politics, Oberlin College :
Santorum's victories show that the GOP base is not yet ready to commit to Romney or Gingrich. They also show, however, that candidates are often too eager to get out of the race when things do not look good.
Santorum was once in the very small single digits, but he decided to stay in it. I wonder how Pawlenty feels about his decision to bow out so early. There is something to be said for persistence.
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Ron Faucheux
Ron Faucheux President of Clarus Research Group, professor and author :
Christian conservatives sent Romney a message that he still has yet to earn the nomination.
There is also growing fear that none of the GOP candidates may be able to beat Obama, which frees some base Republicans to vote their heart, not electability. That plays to Santorum's advantage.
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Steve Murphy
Steve Murphy Democratic consultant; Managing Partner at Murphy Vogel Askew Reilly :
My guess is Bill Kristol is working the phones like Lily Tomlin looking once again for a new Republican candidate. Mrs. Daniels hide the governor's cell phones - all of 'em.
For you editors making assignments for the convention, there's now a 10 percent chance it'll be real, with the deal not done beforehand. Reserve a few more hotel rooms and call Southwest.
And for you guys in Chicago, shake off the hangover from last night's celebration. Even though Mad Dog Mitt is in permanent right turn mode, there's still work to be done.
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Amy Fried
Amy Fried Professor of political science, University of Maine :
Santorum's sweep shows that Republicans continue to have serious reservations about Mitt Romney.
With gay marriage and reproductive rights issues moving to the fore, Santorum is well-positioned to bring out social conservatives. Romney is still highly likely to gain the nomination, but he could end up pushed far to the right on these issues, making it more difficult for him to attract some key portions of the electorate. Meanwhile, the economic issues that had been Romney's bread and butter look like they are losing their centrality as the economy improves.
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Christopher Hahn
Christopher Hahn Democratic consultant :
I spend a great deal of time with conservatives. I find it hard to believe they are excited about a Mitt Romney candidacy.
As governor of Massachusetts, Romney was to the left of Obama on many of 2012's potential hot button issues. If Chris Christie is correct when he said "past is prologue" then how can conservatives trust Mitt?
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