Thursday, June 2, 2011

"Has Sarah Palin contacted one major donor across the country about putting together an organization ? - Has she talked to one member of the Republican National Committee about working for a campaign, or one governor, or one former governor about working for a campaign ? - The answer is no."

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HuffPost : Sarah Palin is not competing in the "Invisible Campaign" to get endorsements from prominent party leaders, important activists, elected officials, donors, and party elites.

Sarah Palin does not seem to be thinking seriously of running for President. She is not doing the important homeworks mentioned above. And she is still an employee of "Fair and Balanced" Fox News. Why ??

Is Sarah Palin no more than an "Empty Celebrity", like Donald Trump in Politics ??


Huffington Post

Sarah Palin's Poll Numbers Down, But Path To GOP Nomination Not Out
Mark Blumenthal

 June 2, 2011


Sarah Palin's Poll Numbers Down, But Path To GOP Nomination Not Out


Some excerpts :

That brings us back to the many Republican insiders who are convinced that Palin will not run, who note Palin has taken few of the steps that potential presidential candidates usually take. Consider the comments York reported from an unnamed Romney supporter:

    "Has she contacted one major donor across the country about putting together an organization? Has she talked to one member of the Republican National Committee about working for a campaign, or one governor, or one former governor about working for a campaign? The answer is no."

As political scientist John Sides reports, recent academic research shows that the number of endorsements a candidate receives from party leaders is ultimately a better predictor of the number of delegates they win, "even after accounting for the amount of money they raise and the amount of news coverage they receive."

That finding says something about primary voters and how they differ from the far larger numbers of voters who participate in general elections. In 2008, roughly 9 percent of U.S. adults voted in the Republican primaries and caucuses. That's a much smaller number than the roughly 20 to 30 percent of U.S. adults that identify as Republicans or the roughly 40 to 45 percent that either identify as or lean Republican(the group that national pollsters most commonly survey with questions about their presidential primary vote intentions). True primary voters are more invested in the political process than other voters, and it should come as no surprise that they place great value on the endorsements from political leaders willing to vouch for potential nominees.

As a result of her celebrity and her base, Sarah Palin is well positioned to dominate news coverage, draw voters to rallies, raise tens of millions of dollars over the Internet and build a nonconventional, grass-roots organization. But that may not be enough to overcome the doubts among rank-and-file Republican primary voters that are preventing Palin from translating her favorable ratings to electoral support.

To do that, Palin will need to compete in what political scientists like Brendan Nyhan, a RWJ Scholar in Health Policy Research at the University of Michigan, calls the "invisible campaign" among "activists, elected officials, donors, and party elites." Palin need not be the favorite of the Republican establishment, but if she runs, she will need to win a majority of those who vote in Republican primaries and caucuses. If she does that, she has a path to the nomination.
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