Ruy Teixeira : Voters : White Working Class (WWC) collapse for President Obama in November 2012 ?? - Congressional Democrats experienced a catastrophic 30 point deficit of WWC in 2010. WWC kicking out Mr Obama in 2012 ??

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The New Republic -
The White Working Class: The Group That Will Likely Decide Obama’s Fate -
By Ruy Teixeira -
June 20, 2011 -


The White Working Class: The Group That Will Likely Decide Obama’s Fate


Some excerpts :

These tactics are likely to pay big dividends both nationally and, even more importantly, in the states where the election is actually decided. Consider the case of Ohio, a state the GOP must take back to take down Obama. White working class voters could end up representing as much as 56 percent of Ohio voters in 2012, judging from Census voter supplement data. Anything close to a 30 point deficit in 2012 will almost definitely sink Obama in this state, no matter what happens with the friendlier portions of the Ohio electorate.

Or take Florida, Nevada, and Colorado, other states that are vulnerable to a white working class collapse. Florida’s 29 electoral votes would assure Obama’s re-election, assuming he manages to carry the 18 states, plus the District of Columbia, that Democrats have carried in every presidential election since 1992 (which, together, represent a total of 241 electoral votes). Compared to Ohio, Florida’s white working class is smaller (a projected 42 percent of voters in 2012), but a 30 point deficit would still torpedo Obama’s chances, putting this must-win state for the GOP firmly in their column. Nevada (42 percent white working class in 2012) and Colorado (46 percent), meanwhile, would also be put in serious doubt should Obama’s support among this group crater in 2012.

Even more alarmingly, the white working class vote provides the perfect way for the GOP to drive a wedge into those 241 electoral votes Democrats have held for five straight presidential elections. Contested states with high proportions of white working class voters like Minnesota (60 percent white working class in 2012), Wisconsin (58 percent), Pennsylvania (55 percent), and Michigan (53 percent) could easily be flipped if this group flees from Obama.

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