POLITICO.COM : 2012 a Big Year for Democrats and Obama - Gerrymandering Report : Redistricting is not going to be so horrible for Democrats - Some Dems even have hopes of grabbing the House of Reps - Preparing the Assault to win the House

.
POLITICO.COM -
Dems see chance for payback in 2012 -
By ALEX ISENSTADT -
June 6, 2011


Dems see chance for payback in 2012


Some excerpts :

Six months ago, one thing seemed certain about the 2012 election: While the White House and the Senate might be up for grabs, the House surely wouldn’t.

The new Republican majority seemed too big to erase in a single night. And the upcoming round of redistricting was poised to lock in recent GOP gains — and probably expand them.

...................

They are also in possession of a silver bullet: the GOP’s Medicare proposal, an issue the New York race suggested rivals cap-and-trade or President Barack Obama’s health care plan for its ability to antagonize voters. A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation national poll in late May revealed that nearly 6 out of 10 voters opposed the plan. The same survey found that the number of those who believe GOP control of the House is good for the country is in decline, dropping from a 52 percent to 39 percent margin in November to 48 percent to 44 percent.

..............

Even Democrats concede that gaining 24 seats is a heavy lift. Few believe the GOP majority is in jeopardy. But the mere fact that the tone of the conversation has subtly changed — the prospect of a Democratic comeback in the House has gone from laughable to somewhat plausible — is an accomplishment in itself after the party suffered historic losses in 2010.

“There’s definitely more excitement about it,” said Michael Fraioli, a veteran Washington-based Democratic fundraiser. “Everyone everywhere was dragging their chins for a long time. But with the win in New York, the change in debate and the lack of a consensus presidential candidate has gotten people thinking about it.”

...........................

Law, whose organization poured around $10 million into House races last year, said he is confident the Republican House majority is safe. But he also said he sees several emerging dynamics — including a surge in Democratic energy from the presidential election — that ensure 2012 will be “hand-to-hand combat.”

“The environment was such that we could have large gains even in districts that weren’t optimal,” said Law. “This time, it’s going to be different. I think the parties are more evenly matched.”

One important factor driving Democratic optimism is the emerging consensus that the once-in-a-decade remapping process won’t be nearly as painful as some anticipated. Republicans entered the year with control over the redistricting process in states that contained 202 House seats — more than four times as many as Democrats.

But early evidence from seven states finished with reapportionment suggests the outcome might not be that bad. The Iowa map puts several GOP incumbents at risk. Last week, Democrats scored a victory when the Department of Justice approved Florida’s Fair Districts initiative, which will curtail the power of Republicans in a state where they have a big partisan advantage in redistricting and in the House delegation. Texas will gain four House seats, but GOP gains are expected to be minimal.

Then there is Illinois, a Democratic-controlled state in which the Legislature recently produced a map with a potential effect on the political landscape of the state — and the nation — that has left Republicans slack-jawed. In a stunning display of raw partisanship, Illinois Democrats signed off on a plan that could cost the GOP as many as five seats.

.