Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Latino Voters not yet registered in Thousands : Texas 2,154 - California 2,026 - Florida 638 - New York 537 - Arizona 405 - Illinois 300 - New Jersey 286 - New Mexico 202 - See Table - How to register these people for Obama 2012 ??

.
Over 8 million more to be registered :


Overall, we estimate 21.5 million Latino citizen adults will be eligible to vote in November 2012, up from 19.5 million in 2008.



Latinovations.com
Guest Blogger Series: Matt Barreto “Where Latino Votes Will Matter in 2012?
March 31, 2011


Guest Blogger Series: Matt Barreto “Where Latino Votes Will Matter in 2012?


Some excerpts of a very long study and article with tables :

Using data from the 1996 – 2008 Current Population Survey, Voting and Registration supplement, and 2010 Census data where available, we have projected the Latino eligible voter population, by state for November 2012. Given the trends in growth rates over the previous decade, and new data from 2010, we project linear estimates for each state in 2012. By the 2012 election, Latinos will account for over 10% of the citizen adult population – potential voters – in 11 states. In another 13 states, Latino account for 5-10% of the citizen adult population. All told, that’s 24 states where Latinos have the capacity to influence electoral outcomes, given a competitive statewide election. In the table below, we outline the potential states where Latinos votes might matter in elections for U.S. Senate and President in 2012. For each state, we list the percentage of the total citizen adult eligible population that is Latino, as well as an estimate of how many eligible Latinos are not yet registered to vote. States are sorted by where Latinos are likely to have the most influence in 2012.

...................

In 2012, Latino voters have the best chance to influence outcomes in 10 states for either Senate, President, or both. Four of the top five states will be “Latino influence states” on everyone’s map – New Mexico, Florida, Nevada, Colorado all have large and growing Latino electorates in otherwise politically competitive states. In addition to close presidential contests, New Mexico, Florida and Nevada will likely see very competitive Senate elections. Another state we include, Arizona, has a large Latino population, and depending on who the nominees are for U.S. Senate, could have a fairly competitive election with Latino voters proving decisive. In 2010, Latinos registered voters in Arizona demonstrated the highest turnout rate of Latinos in any state.

.........................


Over 8 million more to be registered

Overall, we estimate 21.5 million Latino citizen adults will be eligible to vote in November 2012, up from 19.5 million in 2008. If registration rates remain constant, that will leave over 8 million Latino eligible voters who are not registered in 2012. With significant voter registration drives the Latino vote can go from influential to essential. In addition to the current Latino share of the citizen adult population in each state in the table above, we’ve also listed the estimated number of Latinos eligible to vote who are not registered, given growth rates. For example, while Latinos are growing in influence in Arizona, there are over 400,000 Latinos eligible to vote who are not yet registered. In Florida it’s even more – over 600,000 Latinos could be added to the voter rolls. Newly naturalized citizens and young Latinos turning 18 are adding literally a half-million of new potential voters each year.
.................

No comments:

Post a Comment