Wall Street Journal : Economy and Jobs : Why Florida, Nevada and North Carolina are very dangerous for Obama 2012 - Iowa, Minnesota and Ohio may prove difficult but not impossible for Obama

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"Voters' beliefs about the direction the economy is headed can be more important than the overall level of unemployment. Unemployment was high when Ronald Reagan ran for reelection, but the economy was booming, and the possibility of swifter growth could similarly help Mr. Obama"

Wall Street Journal
Job Picture Set to Test Obama in Key States
By SARA MURRAY
June 11, 2011


Job Picture Set to Test Obama in Key States


Some excerpts :

Heartland states—such as Iowa and Minnesota—were less affected by the housing boom and bust, and their economies have benefited from booming agriculture and mining industries. Robust exports of manufactured goods have helped states such as Ohio. Considered a bellwether, having voted for the winner in every presidential race since 1960, Ohio's unemployment rate was 8.6% in April.

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In the most important states for any presidential candidate, the unemployment picture is bleak. In Florida, the fallout from the housing bust, which hit the state with particular force, left it with April unemployment of 10.8%, down just half a percentage point in the past year.

The state is among the largest swing states where recent presidential campaigns have been decided with razor-thin margins. Of the 10 biggest and most competitive states, only Florida and Ohio chose their presidential preferences by less than a 5% margin in the past three elections. And Florida casts 29 electoral votes, compared with Ohio's 18. Mr. Obama carried Florida by a slim 2.8-point margin in 2008.

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Nevada may prove similarly competitive. The state, which also suffered a big housing bust, has the highest unemployment rate in the nation at 12.5%. While Mr. Obama won the state by a 12.5-point margin in 2008, the situation there has worsened for his party.
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Mr. Obama's odds in North Carolina are also complicated by its 9.7% jobless rate. The state has trended Republican in recent presidential elections; Mr. Obama won it by less than a percentage point in 2008.

Momentum may prove kinder to Mr. Obama in Michigan, where the unemployment rate was 10.2% in April. The Mitten State has trended blue in recent presidential elections and Mr. Obama carried it handily in 2008, with a 16.5-point margin.

Michigan entered the recession sooner than most states, largely because of the decline in manufacturing and the auto industry. Obama administration bailouts for auto makers helped the industry regain its footing. Though still painfully high, Michigan's jobless rate has fallen 2.9 points in the past 12 months—the largest state drop .

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