Saturday, December 10, 2011

Pollster Mark Blumenthal : The Republican Invisible Primary : "Power Outsiders Poll: Local Republicans Support Gingrich On Immigration" - Bad News for Mitt Romney - Analysis of Polls, Data, Conversations with Important GOP Officials and Operatives

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Some Important Republican Operatives say they don't want Demagoguery on Immigration :


The Huffington Post surveys a swath of influential, local Republican activists, party leaders and elected officials in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida. Interviews were conducted between Dec. 2 and Dec. 7, 2011.

Very Important Excerpt of this Article :

"Some may also feel slightly personal greater agreement with the harder Romney line, but as practical politicians also understand that "this Hispanic vote is very important," as one New Hampshire respondent put it on a final open-ended question. Or they simply see immigration as a big challenge. When offered the opportunity to explain their answers, a number of the Power Outsiders describe immigration variously as a "challenging topic," an "extremely difficult issue [that] will require great leadership" or an issue "too serious an issue to demagogue"."




Huffington Post
Power Outsiders Poll: Local Republicans Support Gingrich On Immigration
By Mark Blumenthal
December 7, 2011

Power Outsiders Poll: Local Republicans Support Gingrich On Immigration


Some excerpts :

The latest Power Outsider survey conducted by The Huffington Post and Patch suggests that, if anything, influential local Republicans in the early caucus and primary states are rallying to Gingrich's side of the immigration argument. A majority of the local insiders said Gingrich would do a better job than Romney on immigration, and just as many choose Gingrich's position on immigration over Romney's when presented the ideas without their names attached.

The Power Outsiders poll is an ongoing effort to reach out to local Republican activists, party officials and officeholders in the early primary and caucus states to observe the critical "invisible primary," usually a strong leading indicator of voters' preferences in presidential nomination contests. This week we interviewed 183 Power Outsiders: 50 in Iowa, 61 in New Hampshire, 61 in South Carolina and 12 in Florida.

When asked to choose the candidate that would do the best job handling illegal immigration, Gingrich holds a narrow lead over the rest of the field, just as he did when we asked the same question four weeks ago. Twenty-four percent of respondents said they supported Gingrich, with 16 percent and 15 percent supporting Romney and Rick Perry, respectively. Ron Paul garnered 11 percent of the vote, and Michele Bachmann had the support of 10 percent, while the other candidates polled in single digits.

When HuffPost asked respondents to choose between Gingrich and Romney on immigration, however, the former speaker holds a much bigger lead (52 to 27 percent). That advantage is even larger among our Power Outsiders in Iowa (60 to 28 percent) and South Carolina (61 to 16 percent). Though Romney has more support in New Hampshire, the state's Power Outsiders divide almost evenly (38 percent Romney and 36 percent Gingrich).
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