Something may happen, particularly in the economic front, to give a victory to Romney, but today Obama seems a very clear winner of the Presidential Election. Nate Silver of the New York Times, the most prestigious analyst that relies on Mathematical and Computer Models, considers a probability of almost 4 to 1 for Obama over Romney.
In Betting Businesses and Gambling things are very bright for Obama, with the only notable exception of Florida, because bettors have betted heavily for Romney in that state. But many analysts do not discard Florida for Obama.
North Carolina is for Romney, but that is a consolation prize for the multi millionaire that runs on his Business Career, providing only very scarce information about his "Wheelings and Dealings" that are very suspect, and that could turn out to be "non-sanctum" when more information is revealed.
And the Wall Street Market Indexes are very bright for Obama. With Dow Jones Industrial Average at 13,306, Nasdaq at 3,136, and S&P 500 at 1437.92 wee see beautiful numbers for Obama.
Historically the President is reelected if these numbers are high and have been increasing in the last few months or years.
Of course, a grave economic catastrophe can sink the beautiful prospect of reelection for President Obama. But I do not see it very probable, and I think that there will be a Big Bull Market after the reelection in November, that market will last several years and push the Dow Jones to 20,000 and higher.
These grave Recessions are not easily repaired, but the American Economy always reacts with vigor after the sickness is cured. Beware of grave structural economic problems that are not solved overnight and that is why people have to be patient to see low unemployment, high economic growth, and big profits for investors.
And big percentages of economic growth will take care of the National Debt.
POLITICO.COM
State of the race: Advantage, Obama
By JIM VANDEHEI and MIKE ALLEN
September 8, 2012
State of the race: Advantage, Obama
Some excerpts :
The Romney campaign, while pleasantly surprised by Obama’s lackluster prime-time performance, said the post-convention bounce they hoped for fell well short of expectations and privately lament that state-by-state polling numbers — most glaringly in Ohio — are working in the president’s favor.
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“Their map has many more routes to victory,” said a top Republican official. Two officials intimately involved in the GOP campaign said Ohio leans clearly in Obama’s favor now, with a high single-digit edge, based on their internal tracking numbers of conservative groups. Romney can still win the presidency if Obama loses Ohio, but it’s extremely difficult.
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The Republican plan rests heavily on Romney’s capacity to bury Obama with negative ads — and reap the benefits of his billionaire backers hitting the president even harder, and more relentlessly. This, more than anything else, alarms the high command in Chicago.
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"If you are losing in Ohio by four or five points and trailing in Colorado by two points, if you are trailing in Nevada by two or three points, you are not going to win in those states."
"There is a small number of undecided voters, so you are not going to see tremendous movement out of these conventions, even out of the debates. We have a small but important lead in battleground states that is a huge problem for the Romney camp. Ohio needs to be tied, Florida needs to be tied at least."
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“Our problems are Virginia, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire,” a top official of the Romney Campaign said. “Our opportunities are Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado. We can’t trade our problems for our opportunities and win the presidency. If we trade our problems for our opportunities, we lose.”
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