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Importance of Old White People, Evangelicals and Car Manufacturing Jobs :
The Wall Street Journal tells us to watch three counties in the corridor between Cleveland and Toledo (Wood, Ottawa and Sandusky), one in the state’s middle (Tuscawaras) and one in its southwestern corner (Hamilton).
Under my numbers look for the Link to the Wall Street Journal that tells of the importance of Blacks, Old Whites and Car Industry in Ohio.
If Obama wins Hamilton ( Cincinnati ) again, it means he is getting good turnout from African American voters. That will not only help him in Hamilton, but should also help him run up his margins in counties like Cuyahoga ( home of Cleveland ), Franklin ( home of Columbus ) and Lucas ( Home of Toledo ), which also have larger African American populations.
I observe that Cuyahoga ( Cleveland ) and Franklin ( Columbus ) ( Strong Obama ) vote more than Hamilton County ( Cincinnati, Weak Obama ) in early voting 2012.
Cuyahoga was doing 21.9%, Franklin 23.7%, and Hamilton 15.3% in Early Voting 2012 compared to Total Votes 2008.
This is my old data of October 25, 2012 :
County, Results of year 2008, Total Number of Votes in 2008
Cuyahoga, 21.9%, Obama 69.05%, McCain 30.11, 672,750
Franklin, 23.7%, Obama 59.96%, McCain 39.14%, 564,971
Hamilton , 15.3% Obama 53.14%, McCain 46.14%, 429,267
Lucas, 15.3%, Obama 64.98%, McCain 33.53%, 221,905
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And now an important Source :
The Wall Street Journal
Politics Counts: Spotlight on 5 Ohio Counties
This link has Ohio Political Maps
By Dante Chinni
October 26, 2012, 1:00 PM
Spotlight on 5 Ohio Counties
Some excerpts :
Wood, Ottawa and Sandusky Counties
Like the other counties listed here, it’s not that these three control the fate of Ohio – the total population in them is only about 225,000 – but rather that the vote in them in indicative of larger trends in the state with key demographic groups. Wood and Ottawa have sided with the winner in every presidential election since 1992 and Sandusky, which borders them, has done so in four of the five campaigns.
Largely stationed along the Ohio Turnpike, east of Toledo, these three counties have a lot of older white residents. That can swing the vote in them toward the GOP. But they also hold a lot of jobs – and retirees – connected to automobile manufacturing and to auto unions. That may make them a challenge for Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in 2012, as his now infamously headlined opinion piece “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt” is surely know here.
When the Democratic candidate wins these three counties there is usually a solid blue line in the population center across the top of the state along Lake Erie Ohio from Toledo to Cleveland. The map shows how often Democrats have won each of the counties in Ohio in presidential elections since 1992 – the darker the blue, the more often they have won.
Tuscarawas County
Sitting just below the blue northeast corner of Ohio, Tuscarawas is what one might call a gateway county – residing at a part of the state where the most union-heavy, industrial region starts to give way to its more rural, Appalachian south. And that gateway position may be why, like Ottawa and Wood counties, it has gone with the winner in every presidential election since 1992.
The map here shows the counties that have gone Republican in presidential elections since 1992 – the darker the red, the more often the GOP has won.
Tuscarawas is not wealthy, but it not poor either – the median household income is only about $41,000. And while it has more evangelical adherents than many of Ohio’s northern counties, about 16% of its population, it has fewer evangelicals than many of the counties that sit near it and below it. Plus it has a small university presence in a satellite campus of Kent State. In other words, it has small parts of the pieces that make the semi-rural parts of Ohio so complicated and winning it may be a sign that the state in a larger sense is falling to President Obama or Mr. Romney.
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