NBC News : NBC News/WSJ/Marist Ohio Poll : Obama leads 51 percent to 45 percent in Ohio - One-in-five respondents (18 percent) said they have already voted, and, of those, almost two-thirds (63 percent) said they voted for Obama in Ohio.

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NBC News
NBC/WSJ/Marist poll: Romney gains in key swing states
By Domenico Montanaro, NBC News
October 12, 2012


NBC/WSJ/Marist poll: Romney gains in key swing states


Some excerpts :

In Ohio, where there has been a renewed focus by the Romney campaign after the former Massachusetts governor’s strong debate performance, Obama leads 51 percent to 45 percent. That’s a 2-point uptick for Romney.

But the Ohio poll also included an 11-point advantage for self-described Democrats --- 40 percent to 29 percent for Republicans. Last week’s poll had a narrower 5-point advantage for Democrats.  . (In 2008, the party identification split was 39 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican, according to exit polls.)

One factor that may have pulled the party ID more heavily toward Democrats in this poll was early voting. One-in-five respondents (18 percent) said they have already voted, and, of those, almost two-thirds (63 percent) said they voted for Obama.

The ideological makeup in this poll was 22 percent liberal, 32 percent moderate, 46 percent conservative, which is actually less moderate and more conservative than four years ago when it was 20 percent liberal, 45 percent moderate, and just 35 percent conservative, according to the exit poll.

When early voters are taken out of the equation, Obama’s lead shrinks to 48 percent vs. Romney's 46 percent.

"Perhaps the poll is picking up the Obama absentee push,” said Barbara Carvalho, director of the Marist poll.

“By way of methodology, last week there was no question about absentee voting in the Ohio survey. It had not yet started. … Those who said they voted absentee in the past week, since absentee voting started in Ohio, are overwhelmingly Democratic and they voted for the president by a wide margin. This can account for a difference in party identification among likely voters because last week they would have been ‘likely voters’ and this week because absentee voting had started, they are ‘definite voters.’”

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