2008 Election Ohio vs Early Voting 2012 - 21 biggest counties - Obama should do very well in Big Urban Centers to win Ohio and in those counties that voted heavily for him in 2008, Romney should win in Rural Areas and in those counties where McCain did well in 2008

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If Rural ( Republican ) areas vote copiously and the Big Cities and Towns ( Democrats ) abstain then Obama is lost. This is rough, clumsy and somewhat foolish, but I have no better idea.


County,     City,         Votes, Data for 2088 :   ..............      Total Votes 2008

Cuyahoga, Cleveland : Obama 69.05,  McCain 30.11%, ........ 672,750
Franklin, Columbus :   Obama 59.96%,  McCain 39.14%, ...... 564,971
Hamilton, Cincinnati :  Obama 53.14%,  McCain 46.14%, ..... 429,267


This is data for Year 2008 Elections in Ohio :

Summit County,               Obama 57.93%, McCain 40.80%,   280,841
Montgomery County      Obama 52,42%, McCain 46.20%,   280,746
Lucas County                  Obama 64.98%, McCain 33.53%,   221,905
Lorain County                 Obama 58.07%, McCain 40.22%,   148,218
Mahoning County           Obama 62.24%, McCain 35.63%,   128,914
Lake County                   Obama 49.58%, McCain 48.74%,   122,793
Trumbull County             Obama 60.00%, McCain 37.57%,   108,441
Warren County               Obama 67.50%, McCain 31.44%,   106,951
Delaware County            Obama 59.27%, McCain 39.66%,    93,055
Greene County                Obama 58.54%, McCain 40.12%,    84,255
Licking County                Obama 56.97%, McCain 41.20%,    83,197  
Portage County               Obama 53.52%, McCain 44.53%     78,990
Clark County                   Obama 50.37%, McCain 47.86%,    67,588 
Allen County                    Obama 59.57%  McCain 38.84%     50,943
Columbiana County         Obama 52.77%, McCain 45.13%     49,265
Ashtabula County            Obama 55.77%, McCain 42.23%     45,817
Tuscarawas County         Obama 50.05%, McCain 47.62%     43,650
Erie County                     Obama 56.14%, McCain 42.28%     41,729


We have these numbers for Year 2012 Early Voting, These are the 21 biggest counties in Ohio :

First column is Early Voting Stats 2012, - Second Column is 2012 Early / 2008 Votes - Third column is 2088 early, fourth column is Percentage of Early Voting 2008 over Total Votes cast 2008.
 
Allen Cnty                   3,938       7.7%     50,943     22.0%                 12/14
Ashtabula Cnty           2,684       5.9%     45,817     18.5%                 12/14
Clark Cnty                  5,432       8.0%     67,588     25.6%                 12/14
Columbiana Cnty        1,961       4.0%     49,265     15.0%                 12/14
Cuyahoga Cnty          55,876      8.3%     672,750     39.5%                 12/16
Delaware Cnty            4,382       4.7%     93,055     35.1%                 12/14
Erie Cnty                     3,659       8.8%     41,729     31.0%                 12/14
Franklin Cnty            66,443       11.8%    564,971     44.3%                 12/16
Greene Cnty                2,851       3.4%     84,255     28.2%                 12/14
Hamilton Cnty           28,532      6.6%     429,267     25.4%                 12/14
Lake Cnty                   1,705       1.4%     122,793     33.3%                 12/14
Licking Cnty               1,849       2.2%     83,197     33.9%                 12/14
Lorain Cnty                6,187       4.2%     148,218     31.2%                 12/14
Lucas Cnty                 4,952       2.2%     221,905     28.5%                 12/14
Mahoning Cnty         11,791      9.1%     128,914     32.1%                 12/14
Montgomery Cnty     8,244       2.9%     280,746     25.8%                 12/14
Portage Cnty              1,527          1.9%     78,990     23.9%                 12/14
Summit Cnty             16,394      5.8%     280,841     31.2%                 12/14
Trumbull Cnty            6,834       6.3%     108,441     23.1%                 12/14
Tuscarawas Cnty       2,460       5.6%     43,650     26.4%                 12/15
Warren Cnty              8,993       8.4%     106,951     24.3%                 12/15



Important Source for Last Table Data :

"United States Election Project" - Dr. Michael McDonald - Department of Public and International Affairs - George Mason University, Virginia

Link here for important source of  last table  :

Early Voting Data - Dr. Michael McDonald



I give you this data so that we can share perspectives on what is going to happen in Ohio, and we may make our wild guesses. I will continue improving and completing this data. With further analysis using other websites and blogs.

Vicente Duque

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